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German Ifo Smashes Expectations Supporting Euro Amidst Russian Tensions

German Ifo Smashes Expectations Supporting Euro Amidst Russian Tensions

Warren Venketas, Analyst

EUR/USD ANALYSIS

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GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX BEAT ADDS TO EURO TUG OF WAR

The business climate in Germany for the February period as well as expected future (6 months) reflects a positive outlook according to German Ifo data (see calendar below). Strong data across the board adds to the optimistic viewpoint after yesterdays PMI releases for both Germany and the Euro Zone. From an ECB perspective, pressure to tighten monetary policy is likely to intensify however the primary focus for markets across the globe remains on the Russia/Ukraine crisis. This should leave Euro upside limited as downside risk as long as the geopolitical situation remains.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

German Ifo economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

EUR/USD daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Resistance levels:

Support levels:

  • 1.1300
  • 1.1222

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA WEIGHING ON EURO

IGCS shows retail traders are currently long on EUR/USD, with 53% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a bearish disposition.

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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