Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
USD/ZAR Forecast: Rand Looks to End the Week Strong Ahead of NFP

USD/ZAR Forecast: Rand Looks to End the Week Strong Ahead of NFP

Warren Venketas, Analyst
What's on this page


  • USD slump and robust commodity prices bolster ZAR.
  • US NFP data


The rand has been holding its own this week on the back of a weaker US dollar and stronger commodity prices. The dollar has come under pressure after softer ADP and a mixed ISM services print (weaker employment and pricing data).

Rand-linked commodities have remained elevated including platinum, iron ore, coal and gold giving a boost to the local currency.

Looking forward the divergence in tightening between many Emerging Market (EM) central banks peers (see graphic below) and South Africa may hurt the ZAR once Fed tightening picks up. South Africa’s carry trade appeal is much lesser than the below mentioned peers giving more incentive for investors to look at these countries for a higher yield than South Africa – detrimental to ZAR.


emerging market interest rates

Source: Refinitiv

The economic backdrop in South Africa has been yet again been stifled by periodic blackouts (“loadshedding”) placing an additional headwind on the rand.

Later today, the focus shifts to U.S. NFP data which could provide some short-term volatility around the announcement. Recent prints have disappointed and have shown a gradual decline in new jobs. This weeks estimate sits at 150K and any notable shift from this could result in considerable price fluctuations on USD crosses.

USDZAR economic calendar

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide



USDZAR daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The daily USD/ZAR chart shows the long-term channel support (black) holding ahead of the NFP release. The longer term outlook is for a return to dollar strength as the Fed starts hiking rates but a miss on NFP could retest channel support as well as the 15.0639 swing low.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors bearish momentum as it reads below the midpoint 50 level, emphasized by prices trading below the 20,50 and 100-day EMA’s respectively.

Resistance levels:

  • 15.4289

Support levels:

  • 15.0639
  • 15.0000

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.