Crude Oil Price, Chart, and Analysis
- OPEC+ meeting to confirm oil production levels.
- US crude oil looking through the omicron infection numbers.
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OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is expected to say later today that it will increase daily production by 400k barrels a day starting in February. While this further opening of the taps has been expected and priced in for a few weeks now, the rapid spread of the Omicron covid-variant from late November and the subsequent trimming of global demand has seen traders question whether the increase would be delayed. Recent price action confirms that traders are looking through the recent surge in Omicron infections and are looking at an increase in demand for oil.
The daily chart shows the Omicron slump in late November down to just over $62/bbl before the market picked up and rallied by over 20%. The moving average set-up looks positive with the 20-dsma now moving through the 200-dsma, while oil has also broken back above the 50-dsma. A series of higher lows since the start of December adds credibility to a further move higher in the short-to-medium term.
US Crude Oil Daily Price Chart January 4, 2022
US Crude Retail trader data show 55.36% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.24 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.68% higher than yesterday and 0.55% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.11% higher than yesterday and 2.79% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -1% | -9% | -3% |
| Weekly | 24% | -30% | 1% |
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