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Turkish Lira Eyes Best Week in 40 Years, USD/TRY Rapidly Sinks in Illiquid Conditions

Turkish Lira Eyes Best Week in 40 Years, USD/TRY Rapidly Sinks in Illiquid Conditions

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Turkish Lira, USD/TRY – Market Alert

  • Turkish Lira suddenly appreciates during illiquid year-end conditions
  • TRY is aiming for the best week in almost 40 years at the time of writing
  • USD/TRY down about 40% from the December 20th high at 18.362

The Turkish Lira suddenly and quite rapidly appreciated heavily against the US Dollar during late Tuesday Asia-Pacific trade. On the weekly chart below, USD/TRY was down about 32% around 6:30 GMT on December 21st. This is setting the currency pair on course for the most aggressive and swift appreciation in almost 40 years.

The timing of the move comes in the aftermath of measures announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help bolster the Lira. One of these measures includes a program to protect citizens’ savings from swings in the local currency. This response has come following deep losses in TRY towards the end of this year, which has seen USD/TRY soar over 120% from the September low.

It should be noted that this move comes amid illiquid trading conditions due to year-end holidays. In this kind of trading environment, with fewer market participants, breaking news tends to have a more pronounced impact on financial markets. Even currencies, which are by definition the most liquid financial asset, are not always invulnerable. Granted, within the sphere of tradeable currencies, Emerging Market ones tend to be relatively volatile compared to their developed peers.

USD/TRY Weekly Rate of Change

Turkish Lira Eyes Best Week in 40 Years, USD/TRY Rapidly Sinks in Illiquid Conditions

Chart Created Using TradingView

Turkish Lira Daily Chart

On the daily chart, measuring the move in USD/TRY from the December 20th peak (18.362) to the low of 11.114 (at the time of writing), this presents a 40% decline in the pair. Prices swiftly took out the 20-day Simple Moving Average, pausing declines on the 50-day line. The 100 line sits below 10.

Turkish Lira Eyes Best Week in 40 Years, USD/TRY Rapidly Sinks in Illiquid Conditions

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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