Gold Talking Points:
- Gold prices cling to recent range – FOMC economic projections (Sep) and Fed rate decision holds trends at bay
- Inflation and interest rate expectations remain key catalysts for the imminent move
- Support and resistance levels currently remain at key technical levels for XAU/USD
Gold prices stall ahead of FOMC – Fed Fever Looms
Gold prices have recently been trading within a well-defined range as investors shift their focus to the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision and other key economic data expected to be released this week.
DailyFX Economic Calendar
Although Gold and Silver hold a reputation as an inflationary hedge, soaring energy prices and positive employment figures have placed pressure on central banks to raise rates more than prior expectations, therefore hindering gold’s ability to climb higher.
With markets currently pricing in the probability of approximately three rate hikes next year, a more hawkish or dovish tone from the Fed (Federal reserve) may provide an additional catalyst for price action which could potentially drive Bullion out of its current range which has persisted since last month.
Gold Price Analysis:
At the time of writing, Gold prices are trading within a confluent zone, between key Fibonacci levels of both the 2020 and 2021 move.
After falling below channel support late last month, US Dollar strength and expectations of rate hikes have allowed bears to drive price action back towards critical support, currently holding firm at the key psychological level of $1,760 which coincides with the 50% retracement of the 2020 move.
Meanwhile, the commodity channel index (CCI) has fallen back towards the lower bound of the range, a potential indication that the downward trajectory may continue to persist, at least for now.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold Sentiment
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -2% | 4% | 0% |
| Weekly | 9% | 3% | 6% |
Gold: At the time of writing, retail trader data shows 84.25% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.54% higher than yesterday and 3.29% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.72% lower than yesterday and 23.43% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
--- Written by Tammy Da Costa, Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707
