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Bitcoin (BTC) Futures ETF Expected to Launch Imminently, Crypto Market on Hold

Bitcoin (BTC) Futures ETF Expected to Launch Imminently, Crypto Market on Hold

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • Bitcoin futures ETF – the time has come.
  • Are Bitcoin cash-based ETFs the next cabs off the rank?
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It now seems likely that the first Bitcoin futures ETF will hit the NYSE tomorrow, according to a raft of stories doing the rounds. It is expected that ProShares will debut the first Bitcoin ETF on Tuesday, possibly followed by a similar offering from Invesco, unless the SEC decides to put a spanner in the works and delay them, which is still theoretically possible. The ETFs will be based on CME Bitcoin futures.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breaks $60k on Growing Futures-Based ETF Expectations

Over the last two months, SEC chair Gary Gensler has voiced his support for futures-based Bitcoin ETFs as investors are afforded far more regulatory protection under the Investments Act of 1940. At a recent Financial Times conference, Gensler stated that he would ‘look forward to staff’s review of such filings’, giving the market a clear signal of the SEC’s intent. While ProShares is expected to lead the way, there are many other Bitcoin futures ETF filings currently with the SEC, and these will need to be looked at quickly to prevent ProShares from getting too much of a first-mover advantage.

While the holy grail of a cash-based Bitcoin ETF is still in the SEC’s pending tray, the futures-based version will provide another potential layer for investor involvement in the cryptocurrency market. ETF filings are nothing new, with many sent to the SEC for review over the past few years, but the realization over the past weeks that the SEC is looking at them positively has seen Bitcoin rally back to within a few percentage points of a new all-time high. This rally has been accompanied by an outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges. According to CoinMarketCap, when exchanges experience a net outflow of Bitcoin, ‘this could be indicative of traders and investors moving Bitcoin out of exchanges to hold in private wallets (cold storage)…when there is a greater inflow, it could be indicative of traders and investors depositing Bitcoin to sell’.

Chart via CoinMarketCap.

After running up to around $62.5k over the weekend, Bitcoin has faded back to the $61k level as traders wait for the all-clear from the SEC. The markets have traded in a strong one-way trend over the past few weeks and this may lead to a small amount of profit-taking when the green light is given. However, any sell-off will likely be shallow and short-lived as sentiment around the crypto space remains positive and with the all-time high so close, a further rally to a new ATH cannot be ruled out in the short term.

Bitcoin Daily Price Chart – October 18, 2021

What is your view on Bitcoin (BTC) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.