News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6cn6OK6M7w
  • RT @Stephanie_Link: 84% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3, which is tied for the 3rd highest percentage since 2008…
  • What is #NFP and how can you trade it? Find out: https://t.co/XJWS04IF9j https://t.co/iV9lPzPDtc
  • What does it mean when one candle fully engulfs the previous in its price action? The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market?€?s most clear-cut price action signals. Figure out how to identify this pattern here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/3J0xXp4axT
  • Oil maintains a medium-term bullish outlook, but its overbought condition and price's proximity to key technical resistance may pave the way for a brief pullback before the next leg higher. Get your weekly oil forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/sv2bMc34gI https://t.co/DDIoe4VhZ3
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/P3SduerCFF
  • The update to the US GDP report may keep the Greenback under pressure as signs of a slowing recovery undermines speculation for an imminent shift in Fed policy. Get your weekly USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/xvLr1bLfZG https://t.co/aQnOIoUM9t
  • There a many different trading styles that can be applied to trading forex. Learn about different types of traders here: https://t.co/xfzRCzuuKK https://t.co/GXxdkNEeCg
  • Hang Seng Tech Index has likely formed a bullish “Inverse Head and Shoulders” chart pattern. Immediate support and resistance levels can be found at 5,800 and 7,433 respectively. Breaching above 7,433 would likely bring 8,266 into focus. https://t.co/VsavFLj97V
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bullish “Butterfly” chart pattern, which hints at further gains. The MACD indicator is about to form a bearish crossover, suggesting that upward momentum may be weakening and thus vulnerable to a short-term pullback. https://t.co/J0PFLYzXR1
Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Justin McQueen, Strategist

S&P 500, AUD, EUR/CHF Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 Turning a Corner
  • US 10YR Yield Testing 1.6%
  • EUR/CHF Defended at Key Support Again
  • AUD Has Breakout Potential

Turning a Corner: A lot of the narratives that have played their part in weighing on market sentiment over the last few weeks, during a seasonally soft period are beginning to ease. This includes the likes of soaring gas prices, which thanks to Putin have seen a sizeable pullback from the recent highs. To add to this, while concerns surrounding the indebted property developer, Evergrande, will remain, investor angst has subsided amid the lack of newsflow. Alongside this, with the reversal in China-US shippings rates, this would imply that supply chain disruptions are coming to an end. That said, this is now coming at a time where equities tend to bottom out after the late September to early October slide, and yes, I’m aware that past performance does not provide a signal for future performance. However, as I mentioned above, given that the mood music is improving, this increases my confidence in potential seasonal factors.

Yield Watch

Although, what I will say is keep a watchful eye on US yields as the US 10yr edges ever so closer to the June peak. Should we see a breakout above 1.60%, this will not favour tech stocks, which in turn would raise the likelihood that tech stocks could lead the way lower.

Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

EUR/CHF:As I noted on Tuesday, EUR/CHF had grabbed my attention as the cross moved towards the 1.0700 handle. Arguably a soft line in the sand, which yet again has been defended. Given my current view that risk appetite will stabilise, this will likely bode well for EUR/CHF in the short run and thus expect 1.0700 to continue to curb downside.

Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Source: Refinitiv

Does NFP Matter for FX?

NFP day, but the question is, does it really matter for FX markets now that the Federal Reserve has signalled that a November taper is a done deal. Keep in mind, that at the prior Fed meeting, Chair Powell that a decent jobs report will do, which in turn takes the excitement out of today’s release and unless we see a shocking figure showing job losses for September, I doubt today’s release will move the needle for the Fed.

Taking a look at the market reaction to the ADP report, we saw that after the Fed provided a hawkish pivot in June, FX markets had become increasingly sensitive to the data as markets attempted to gauge the timing of the taper announcement. Now that Fed has largely confirmed as much, this week’s release failed to light any volatility sparks for FX. Instead, I will be keeping a closer eye on the fixed income space.

Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Source: Refinitiv

AUD Has Breakout Potential

As equities begin to stabilise and with Chinese data firming again, as evidenced by the strong Caixin PMI overnight (53.4 vs 50.7 Exp.), the Australian Dollar could be readying for a breakout. To add to this, China is also turning towards Australian coal in order to ease the current national power crunch amid a coal shortage. A factor that will likely bode well for the Aussie.

On the tech side, pivotal resistance at 0.7300-0.7320 stands in its way, the same with AUD/CHF at 0.6800. Alongside this, and as I have mentioned before, CFTC positioning data shows that speculators hold a record short in the currency. Therefore, should today’s NFP release prompt a bid in the greenback, I favour fading any dips in AUD/USD from 0.7220.

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Has Breakout Potential, S&P 500 Turning a Corner

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES