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US Dollar Muted on PCE, But Watch Out for ISM Risk

US Dollar Muted on PCE, But Watch Out for ISM Risk

Justin McQueen, Strategist

US Dollar Analysis & News

  • Core PCE Matches Estimates
  • Eyes on ISM PMI, Risk of a Miss

Core PCE Matches Estimates

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE showed an increase of 3.6%, matching analyst estimates, while the headline rose 4.3%, 0.1ppt higher than the prior month. Elsewhere, personal income fell short of expectations at 0.2% (Exp. 0.3%), while personal spending printed ahead of consensus.

The reaction in the USD has been relatively muted as to be largely expected, given that this data will likely do little in terms of implications for Fed policy. Keep in mind, Fed Officials are in an agreement that their inflation mandate has been reached regarding tapering asset purchases. Going forward, eyes will be on the ISM report later today where risks are for a softer than expected reading. Should we see a softer figure, risk sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD) could see a pullback from intra-day highs.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

US Dollar Muted on PCE, But Watch Out for ISM Risk

Source: Refinitiv

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