News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Stock markets may be vulnerable to political volatility as China flexes its military might against Taiwan ahead of the Biden-Xi summit. Will reconciliation yield to rockets? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.20% Silver: 0.19% Oil - US Crude: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.58%, while traders in USD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 77.23%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • RT @josh_wingrove: Biden went to Baltimore and gave the biggest update yet on the Congressional talks, said the corporate tax rate won’t ri…
  • Gold prices are under pressure after China growth slowed and New Zealand inflation surged, with investors pricing in more aggressive central bank policy outlooks, which is supporting bond yields.Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Australian Dollar gaining during morning Asia trade after reports crossed the wires that #Evergrande made a bond interest payment Sentiment is cautiously improving, #SP500 futures are pushing higher $AUDUSD #SP500 #AUD
  • RT @josh_wingrove: Some clarity: President Biden's comment on the tax rate was referring to the challenge of having the votes to raise the…
  • #RBA buys bonds to defend yield target for first time since February -BBG #AUD $AUDUSD
  • #Evergrande pays $83.5m of bond interest due September 23rd -BBG citing SEC Times
Japanese Yen Outlook: JPY Poised for Breakout Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

Japanese Yen Outlook: JPY Poised for Breakout Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

Warren Venketas, Analyst




The related safe-havenJapanese Yen rallied this week with the Evergrande crisis gaining traction and devastating global markets. Investors are exhibiting risk averse behavior which may be premature but prefer to err on the side of caution. The Japanese bond market echoes this sentiment as foreign investment increases (see graphic below) and may continue should the current uncertain macroeconomic backdrop endure.

foreign investment japanese government bonds

Source: Refinitiv


According to Refinitiv, there is a 97.79% chance of the BoJ keeping rates unchanged which then shifts focus to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow – see calendar below.

USD/JPY economic calendar

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

Markets will be tuned in to an impending taper which and guidance on how the Fed will go about recent data which include inflation figured far exceeding the average 2% target (yellow), lackluster jobs data (purple) and lingering COVID-19 concerns (pink) – refer to graphic below. This could delay a quicker start to tapering current asset purchases and support additional Yen strength.

U.S. economic data

Source: Refinitiv


USD/JPY Daily Chart:

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The daily USD/JPY chart above outlines the weeks fall as price action tests the symmetrical triangle support line (black). Prior attempts to break and close below the 38.2% Fibonacci 109.25 (Fibonacci taken from June 2015 high to June 2016 low) level have been unsuccessful but a confirmation close below this area of confluence may open up further downside opportunity.

Key resistance levels:

  • 110.00
  • 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) - yellow

Key support levels:

  • 109.25 – 38.2% Fibonacci level
  • 109.00
  • 108.72 – August swing low


IGCS shows retail traders are currently net long on USD/JPY, with 55% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we take a contrarian view on sentiment which suggests further downside on the pair.

--- Written by Warren Venketas for

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.