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Gold and Silver Hold Breath for Jackson Hole, ETF Outflows Accelerate

Gold and Silver Hold Breath for Jackson Hole, ETF Outflows Accelerate

Margaret Yang, CFA, Former Strategist

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK:

  • Gold and silver prices held steadily ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium
  • Investors are eyeing Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for clues about the Fed’s tapering timeline
  • The world’s largest gold ETF saw accelerated outflows in recent weeks, underscoring downward momentum
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Gold prices extended lower during Wednesday’s APAC session, testing an immediate support level at $1,785. Bullion traders are eyeing the Jackson Hole symposiumfor clues about the Fed’s tapering timeline. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium on Friday. Global investors will watch closely whether or not the central bank is planning to scale back the $120 billion per month asset purchase program by the end of this year. The market doesn’t seem to be too concerned about that however, as the DXY US Dollar index has fallen for the past 4 days straight.

The world’s largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) – saw three consecutive weeks of net outflow in August. This suggests that more sellers are returning to the bullion market as the Fed is drawing closer to scale back asset purchases. The number of GLD shares outstanding decreased 4.6 million last week, after dropping 2.9 and 1.4 million in the prior two weeks respectively. Gold prices and the number of outstanding GLD shares have exhibited a strong positive correlation in the past (chart below). Therefore, an accelerated pace of redemption in the ETF may be viewed as a bearish signal for prices.

Gold Prices vs. GLD ETF Shares OutstandingPast 12 Months

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Looking ahead, the GfK consumer confidence data dominates the economic docket alongside US GDP and initial weekly jobless claims. Find out more from the DailyFX economic calendar.

Technically, gold prices pulled back to a key support level at $1,785 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Holding above this level may open the door for further upside potential with an eye on $1,810. A breakdown however, may intensify near-term selling pressure and expose the $1,750 support. The MACD indicator formed a bullish crossover and trended higher, suggesting that upward momentum isbuilding.

Gold - Daily Chart

As for silver,prices breached below a trendline support and plunged to a key support level at $22.90 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices have likely formed a bullish “Double Bottom” chart pattern after rebounding twice from the key support. The overall trend remains bearish-biased, as suggested by the consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The MACD indicator formed a bullish crossover beneath the neutral midpoint, suggesting that buying power may be building.

Silver – Daily Chart

Gold Bullish
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 1% -5%
Weekly -13% 14% -7%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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