EUR/USD Crumbles to a 9-Month Low, Breaks Below 1.1700
EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis
- EUR/USD takes out prior support at the 1.1700 level.
- Fibonacci support is broken – 1.1600 now in view.
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The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting released yesterday indicate that progress has been made towards the central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and employment, and while there are still risks to the economy, the suggestion is that a slowing down of the US bond-buying program may soon be announced. The Jackson Hole Symposium – August 26-28 – will provide one platform for chair Powell to announce a change in Fed thinking, while the September FOMC meeting, with the latest Summary of Economic Projections, is now seen as a live event where a tapering announcement is beginning to be baked in.
The subsequent rally in the US dollar to a near five-month high has seen EUR/USD break below a strong area of support around 1.1700 and tumble to levels last seen in early November 2020. The March 2021 low at 1.1704 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level just below at 1.1695 both fell in Asian turnover, leaving the November 4, 2020 low print at 1.1603 vulnerable.
EURO (EUR/USD) Daily Price Chart August 19, 2021
Retail trader data show 64.10% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.79 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.03% lower than yesterday and 15.73% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.13% higher than yesterday and 4.54% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
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