News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Rallies Hard as Rate Hike Expectations Jump Further

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Rallies Hard as Rate Hike Expectations Jump Further

Nick Cawley, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • Hot New Zealand job market ramps up rate hike bets.
  • New Zealand dollar jumps across the board
  • Retail trade data highlights a bullish contrarian NZD/USD bias

New Zealand unemployment fell sharply in the June 2021 quarter to 4.0% from 4.6% in the March quarter, while the employment rate rose to 67.6%, up 0.5% on the quarter and 0.6% on an annualized basis. Both figures beat market expectations by a wide margin and further increased predictions of a rate hike to 0.50%, from the current level of 0.25%, at the RBNZ’s next policy meeting on August 18.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Rallies Hard as Rate Hike Expectations Jump Further

Today’s employment data follows a warning from the RBNZ yesterday that the central bank is considering tighter mortgage lending standards in an effort to dampen the country’s red hot housing market. The RBNZ is considering ways to ensure ‘borrowers are resilient to a range of future economic and financial conditions. We are particularly concerned about those who have borrowed in the past 12 months at high LVRs (Loan-to-Value ratios) and high DTIs (Debt-to-Income)’.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

The New Zealand dollar rose sharply for the second day in a row as the market continued to price-in rate hike expectations. The Kiwi is currently trading 0.50%+ higher against a range of other currencies with NZD/USD printing a fresh one-month high earlier in today’s session. The daily chart shows the pair in overbought territory, suggesting a short-term period of consolidation may be on the horizon, while the pair has also broken above the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages for the first time in two months. With interest rate hikes now looking fully priced in, Friday’s US jobs report will likely be the short-term driver for the pair. In the medium- to longer-term, the outlook for NZD/USD remains positive.

NZD/USD Daily Price Chart (November 2020 – August 4, 2021)

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Rallies Hard as Rate Hike Expectations Jump Further

Retail trader data show46.66% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.14 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.52% higher than yesterday and 3.46% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.41% higher than yesterday and 12.98% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise.Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

What is your view on the New Zealand Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.