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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Consolidating as Key Resistance Holds

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Consolidating as Key Resistance Holds

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD Struggling to Overcome 0.7600
  • AUD/USD in Consolidation Phase

AUD Struggling to Overcome 0.7600

A rather subdued start to the week for markets amid a lack of key macro drivers. In turn, major G10 pairs remain in narrow ranges and as volatility (VIX) drifts lower, tight ranges will persist until later in the week, where we have US ISM figures alongside the latest NFP report. AUD/USD has struggled to overcome resistance at 0.7600, while renewed restrictions in NSW, have not helped matters for the Aussie. That said, restrictions are likely to have a limited impact on the Aussie and instead the focus will be on the upcoming monetary policy decision on July 6th in which the expectation is that the three-year yield target will not be moved to the November 2024 bond, thus maintaining the April 2024 bond as the target bond. Alongside this, in light of the recent stellar employment report, there is also a potential for the RBA to sound less dovish regarding the outlook for monetary policy, signalling a rate hike for 2023 as opposed to 2024.

AUD/USD in Consolidation Phase

Taking the look at the technical front, AUD/USD is in somewhat of a consolidation phase after its recent sell-off. As such, resistance in the pair is situated at 0.7600 and 0.7620, while support resides at 0.7560, which coincides with the 200DMA. In turn, this will likely mark the range for the AUD/USD as we await key market catalysts.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Consolidating as Key Resistance Holds

Source: Refintiiv

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Consolidating as Key Resistance Holds

Source: Refinitiv

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