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Canadian Dollar Outlook - USD/CAD Surge Now Hitting Extreme Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook - USD/CAD Surge Now Hitting Extreme Levels

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Price (USD/CAD), News, and Analysis:

  • USD/CAD breaks out of its multi-week trading range.
  • Client sentiment data shows traders cutting back their long positions.

The FOMC-induced US dollar rally continues at pace, breaking a range of USD-pair trading ranges and resistance levels. One of many USD-pairs that stand out is USD/CAD which looks to be starting a strong reversal of the 15-month sell-off from the March 2020 high of 1.4670. The breakout from the multi-week trading range now looks complete, leaving USD/CAD room to move higher over the medium-term. In the short term, this week’s rally may be vulnerable to a partial re-trace with the 14-day CCI indicator flashing an extreme overbought market signal. For the rally to continue, this reading will need to normalize, suggesting either a partial re-trace from current levels or a period of consolidation.

The recent setback in the oil market is also weighing on the Canadian dollar to a small degree, although the small sell-off in oil is from heady levels last seen over two years ago. The outlook for oil remains positive and again needs some time to shake off current US dollar strength.

While the short-term outlook is likely neutral, for the pair to push ahead further, then the series of lower highs off the March 2020 high need to be broken. The last lower high is still three big figures away at 1.2656 and this will take some time despite the current USD bullishness.

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart (October 2020 - June 18, 2021)

Canadian Dollar Outlook - USD/CAD Surge Now Hitting Extreme Levels

IG Retail trader data show 66.83% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.02 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 11.88% lower than yesterday and 31.99% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.71% lower than yesterday and 22.67% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall.Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

What is your view on USD/CAD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.