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Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Looks to Rebound After Blowout Jobs Data

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Looks to Rebound After Blowout Jobs Data

Brendan Fagan,

Australian Employment Data, AUD/USD, RBA Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD popped higher immediately following the release, beginning to retrace previous day’s decline
  • USD caught a bid as the Federal Reserve revealed participants see two full rate hikes in 2023
  • Australian unemployment rate falls to 5.1% as the country adds 115k jobs in May

The Australian economy continues to recover at a brisk pace, with the country adding 115k jobs in May against an expectation of 30k. Of the 115k, 97k were classified as full-time jobs indicating that the labor market continues to rebound as restrictions ease and vaccination rates continue to rise. The strong print dropped the country’s unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.1%, a dramatic drop that no doubt will draw the attention of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The employment data follows cautious comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe regarding wage growth, which led to a decline in AUD/USD on Wednesday. Further weakness in the pair was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s improved outlook of two rate hikes in 2023. Lowe mentioned that the Australian economy is still in the “recovery phase,” and that the Aussie economy still needs stimulus.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Looks to Rebound After Blowout Jobs Data

Chart created with TradingView

Market sentiment still appears to favor the Greenback and US bonds, evidenced by AUD/USD‘s slump to a fresh two-month low following the June FOMC meeting. Despite the strong employment numbers coming out of Australia, the focus remains on the Fed’s taper timeline along with the two rate hikes projected in 2023. While benchmark rates and asset purchases remained unchanged, a glimpse into a hawkish future was provided by the dot plot. As long as the market retains faith in the Federal Reserve and its ability to combat and manage this bout of “transitory” inflation, it is difficult to see AUD/USD returning to yearly highs around 0.8000.

--- Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern for DailyFX

To contact Brendan, use the comments section below or @BrendanFaganFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.