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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP Underpinned by Robust Jobs Report

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP Underpinned by Robust Jobs Report

Justin McQueen, Strategist

GBP/USD Price Analysis & News

  • UK Jobs report Continues to Show Signs of a Recovery
  • GBP Underpinned by Robust Data

UK Jobs report Continues to Show Signs of a Recovery

A relatively robust labour market as the UK unemployment rate edged lower to 4.7%, matching forecasts, while average earnings surpassed expectations. Despite the employment change missing expectations at 113k (150k expected) the number of payrolled employees rose for a sixth consecutive month and is now 553k below the levels seen prior to the pandemic.

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP Underpinned by Robust Jobs Report

Source: ONS

GBP Underpinned by Robust Data

In light of the UK jobs report continuing to show signs of a recovery, this is likely to underpin the Pound. Although, given the FOMC meeting ahead, price action is likely to be subdued until then. Key support in GBP/USD remains at 1.4070-80, while on the topside resistance remains situated at the 1.4200 handle.

Going back to the data, while the latest report is an encouraging sign, it is unlikely to move the needle for the outlook on BoE policy, given that 3.4mln employees remain supported by the furlough, which will remain in place until the end of September. Therefore, a true reflection of the state of the jobs market is unlikely to be known until after the scheme comes to an end. Alongside this, money markets have more than priced in a good amount of tightening from the BoE in 2022. Elsewhere, UK PM Johnson yesterday confirmed that the there would be a 4-week delay to the final stage of reopening amid the rise in the number of cases, however, as I stated in the weekly GBP forecast, the impact of the decision is likely to be limited.

GBP/USD Chart: Hourly Time Frame

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP Underpinned by Robust Jobs Report

Source: Refinitiv

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