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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Dragged Down by Copper Correction

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Dragged Down by Copper Correction

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • Copper Drags AUD Lower
  • Little Conviction Ahead of FOMC
  • Yuan and Rate Differentials Working Against AUD/USD

AUD Sentiment Soft Ahead of FOMC

AUD: As market participants await the FOMC meeting, there is little in the way of any conviction trades across the FX space. Softer sentiment in the AUD not helped by the pullback in copper prices, which has now entered into correction territory having fallen over 10% from the May peak. In turn, AUD/USD is nearing the lows of its recent range after a dip below 0.7700. Elsewhere, the recent attempts by Chinese officials to stem the rise in the Chinese Yuan has been another factor that has kept upside in the Aussie limited. For what to watch regarding the FOMC, click here

Copper Corrects From May Peak

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Dragged Down by Copper Correction

Source: Refinitiv

Taking a look at the chart, support resides at 0.7640-50, while on the topside resistance is situated at 0.7750. Given the relative calm in markets, I suspect this will be the range for AUD until tomorrow. Also important to keep a close watch on US/AU rate differentials, which remain in favour of the greenback and thus should differentials head lower, expect AUD/USD to follow suit.

AUD/USD vs AU/US Rate Differentials

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Dragged Down by Copper Correction

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.