News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
  • There is a ridiculous number of scheduled Fed speeches on the docket next week. Powell specifically will be speaking multiple times including at an ECB hosted forum on central banking (which also has a panel with Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ heads)
  • USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4 - #DXY chart on @TradingView https://t.co/iCnRSo9N4V
  • Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's is due to give its sovereign credit rating update on Germany today ahead of weekend national elections
  • RT @BIS_org: Since the early 1990s, changes in the #MonetaryPolicy stance have affected a rather narrow set of prices – mostly in the servi…
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
U.S. Inflation Accelerates in May at Fastest Pace since 2008, Treasury Yields Tick Higher

U.S. Inflation Accelerates in May at Fastest Pace since 2008, Treasury Yields Tick Higher

Diego Colman, Market Analyst

CPI KEY POINTS:

  • May headline CPI in the United States rises 0.6% m/m and 5.0% y/y, beating market consensus.
  • Core inflation surges 0.7% on a monthly basis and 3.8% annually, also above investors’ expectations.
  • The outsize inflation print pushes treasury yields higher, boosting the US dollar.
Advertisement

Most read: Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Eyes Fastest Expected Core Inflation Rate Since 1993

The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May and 5.0% on an annual basis, the fastest pace in more than a decade as the economic recovery kicked into high gear and energy costs remained skewed to the upside. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had been looking for an increase of 0.5% m/m and 4.7% y/y in the headline print. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy products, rose 0.7% with respect to April and 3.8% over the last 12 months, two tenth of a percent above consensus, driven primarily by a spike in used cars and truck prices.

The table below summarizes the main drivers of the CPI index according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

CPI COMPONENTS

For a long time before the coronavirus crisis hit the world, the United States economy struggled with dormant and weak inflation, but in recent months the trend has reversed dramatically amid reopening pent-up demand, supply bottlenecks, higher commodity prices and base effects. Although policy makers characterize the surge in prices as transitory in nature, some markets participants are skeptical and believe the problem may morph into a long-term predicament and become entrenched if left unchecked by the central bank.

Immediately after the CPI report crossed the wires, US treasury yields began to climb, with the 10-year yield rising 3 bp 1.52%. Meanwhile, the dollar, measure by the DXY index, also ticked higher, although the moves were limited. Many investors are of the opinion that mounting and sticky inflationary pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to start the bond tapering debate sooner rather than later to reduce the risk of economic overheating. Generally speaking, the withdrawal of monetary stimulus (QE) may push interest rates higher and boost the US dollar, ceteris paribus.

US 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD (5 MINUTES CHART)

US 10Y TREASURY YIELD

Despite the financial noise and speculation, it remains uncertain whether the latest inflation data will be enough to alter the Fed's normalization roadmap, especially since the labor market has not made substantial progress towards the employment mandate. To better understand the FOMC’s thinking, it is very important for all traders to closely follow the institution's monetary policy announcement scheduled for next week. At the June meeting, the central bank will present its updated summary of economic projections (Dot plot, etc.) and may offer new clues about its next steps. Needless to say, the forward guidance and new forecasts will be crucial for financial markets and may pave the way for the next major move in various asset classes such as the US dollar, EMFX, treasury yields, equities, etc.

EDUCATION TOOLS FOR TRADERS

---Written by Diego Colman, DailyFX Market Strategist

Follow me on Twitter: @DColmanFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES