Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook:
- The Nasdaq 100 trades near record levels but seasonal headwinds have seen price action slow
- Upcoming inflation data and subsequent monetary policy consequences could revive volatility
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Nasdaq 100 Price Forecast for the Week Ahead
While the Nasdaq 100 has long been the most volatile of the three major US indices, it is not immune from broader seasonal trends that can give rise to uninspired price action. Recent sessions have seen the tech-heavy index languish about, trading only slightly higher over the last two weeks. Such price action furthers the likelihood of range-bound price action that open the door to range trading strategies. That said, volatility could be revived by upcoming inflation data and next week’s FOMC meeting.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: Hourly Time Frame (April 2021 – June 2021)
In the meantime, however, the Nasdaq may continue to lack conviction and could bounce between technical levels as a result. Initial resistance resides around the index’s all-time high of 14,080 with few barriers beyond. Support may reside nearby at the zone around 13,700 followed by more formidable support from 13,300 to 13,400. As it stands, the “line in the sand” can likely be found along the rising channel near 13,100 that, if support were to give, could see losses accelerate.
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That said, the ground the Nasdaq 100 would have to cover before 13,100 were under threat is significant and seasonal conditions would make such a move all the more difficult. With that in mind, traders may bide their time until Thursday’s inflation data release and next week’s FOMC meeting. Both events will offer insight into the main market themes driving price action, inflation concerns and taper talk.
As the Nasdaq 100 searches for its next catalyst, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
