News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (MAY) Actual: 92.1 Previous: 95.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (MAY) Actual: 102.6 Previous: 103.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (MAY) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 103.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (MAY) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 95.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-28
  • Crude Oil Prices Risk Forming a “Lower High” on Viral Concerns, Stockpiles Fall https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/28/Crude-Oil-Prices-Risk-Forming-a-Lower-High-on-Viral-Concerns-Stockpiles-Fall-.html https://t.co/A8H9tICkse
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.37%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8RDJ927lny
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/DtSCe17vPg
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5vk2L17zcp
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.09% Germany 30: -0.10% FTSE 100: -0.12% US 500: -0.14% Wall Street: -0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0RLz8L0Goo
  • Despite the IMF's update to 2021 growth forecasts and strong earnings after hours, risk trends are pacing like markets are worried. Traders are likely awaiting the Fed, and that has me look at $EURUSD and $USDCAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/07/28/EURUSD-and-USDCAD-Reversals-More-Suitable-to-Conditions-but-Beholden-to-Fed.html https://t.co/ywxD4wRAYX
US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

Justin McQueen, Analyst

USD, NFP Price Analysis & News

  • All Eyes on NFP After Stellar ADP Report
  • Weekly Closes Important for G10 FX

The main highlight for today’s session will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report, where yesterday’s strong ADP (978k vs 650k exp) provided a sneak peek reaction as to what is to come, should we see a sizeable beat on NFP. That said, it is important to note that the ADP report hasn’t exactly had the best of track records in predicting the NFP data in recent time, with last month’s reading being the prime example (Chart 1). Therefore, this raises the risk that USD bulls may have gotten ahead of themselves. What’s more, given the sizeable move post-ADP, this raises the bar for NFP to surprise on the upside, meaning that you could see a beat relative expectations, however, disappointment may ensue should NFP print below the ADP figure.

US NFP vs ADP (Chart 1)

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

Eyes on Weekly Close as Ranges Begin to Break

As is the usually the case, the pre-NFP lull has set in and while some excitement in markets is expected once the NFP data is released, with recent ranges now breaking across G10 FX, where markets close will be particularly important.

EUR/USDhas made a firm break below trendline support, raising downside risks. As 1.21 is tested a close below opens the door to 1.2040-50.

EUR/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

Source: Refinitiv

EUR/USD Tech Levels

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

GBP/USD remains firm as 1.4100 keeps the pair afloat in the face of renewed USD demand. Cross-selling in EUR/GBP has also underpinned GBP. The uptrend in GBP/USD intact with 1.40 the key pivot zone.

GBP/USD Tech Levels

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

AUD/USD: With little interest to take AUD above 0.7750, the pair is back down to support at 0.7640-50. AUD/USD remains nestled in its broad 0.7600-0.7900 range and should the NFP disappoint, this is expected to continue with the pair likely to see another look above 0.7700 in reaction.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

Source: Refinitiv

AUD/USD Tech Levels

US Dollar Price Action Setup for NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Levels

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES