News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: Hello traders! The Weekly Commodities Trading Prep webinar will be pushed 24 hours to Wednesday 2:00 GMT/10:00 pm EST. Joi…
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/rRT4oBDnrK
  • Even in quiet market conditions, you can always find some activity #Philippine stock index (PSEi) up about 13.5% from late May low Expectations of easing lockdowns in the Manila capital region have been a fundamental driver Falling Wedge breakout facing the 61.8% Fib at 6916 https://t.co/VPtB78GRvl
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short USD/JPY for the first time since Jun 04, 2021 when USD/JPY traded near 109.52. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KPOyPWpuDn
  • Interesting tone update from the Bank of Indonesia ahead of this week's rate decision The CB said yesterday that it sees Rupiah weakening as 'still reasonable' But. it will maintain measures to stabilize the exchange rate See my tech update here - https://t.co/vu89Lt0boZ
  • The US Dollar continues to see varied performance against ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD is consolidating. USD/THB may bounce. USD/IDR and USD/PHP could continue lower.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Ccvcy93t5X https://t.co/cejykWrenF
  • RT @FxWestwater: $AUDUSD Eyes RBA Minutes After Iron Ore Rally Fails to Lift Aussie Dollar Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/06/14/AUDUSD-Eyes-RBA-Minutes-After-Iron-Ore-Rally-Fails-to-Lift-Aussie-Dollar.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/AlQ6…
  • The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 await much needed insight from the Federal Reserve on the central bank’s planned policy path given recent economic data releases. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/bZso3WxyC6 https://t.co/d4YJ8jbGok
  • GBP/USD Eyes Trend Support as US Dollar Awaits Fed Dot Plot -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/14/gbp-usd-eyes-trend-support-as-us-dollar-awaits-fed-dot-plot.html $GBPUSD #Forex #Trading https://t.co/1BkZ4x0uCG
  • Are gold prices the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the Federal Reserve meeting? Taper talk may indeed be on the menu (even if it won’t formally arrive until later this year). Get your $XAUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/gsoRisZzV6 https://t.co/cjqt0SvWIx
Crude Oil Prices Drop on APAC Viral Resurgence, Iranian Supply Worries

Crude Oil Prices Drop on APAC Viral Resurgence, Iranian Supply Worries

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK:

  • Crude prices fell on Thursday as Japan extended Covid-related restrictions while Australia’s Victoria state imposed fresh lockdowns
  • Worries about Iranian supply may hinder the upside as WTI arrives ata key resistance level of $ 66.50
  • EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories for the week ending May 21st

Crude oil prices retreated slightly during Thursday’s APAC trade after gaining 7% over the last four sessions. Profit-taking ramped up as Japan extended the state of emergency in Tokyo and other key areas. Meanwhile, Australia’s Victoria state imposed fresh lockdown measures on Thursday in the wake of rising Covid-19 cases. Lingering viral concerns cast a shadow over the outlook for energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region, weighing on crude oil prices.

Daily New Covid-19 Cases – Australia

Crude Oil Prices Drop on APAC Viral Resurgence, Iranian Supply Worries

Source: Google

Traders are also assessing the impact from Iranian barrels if Washington and Tehran can strike a nuclear deal and pave the way for easing sanctions on the Middle Eastern country. Iranian crude oil exports have declined sharply since the US tightened sanctions in 2018, falling from over 2.2 million bpd to 0.09 million bpd in April 2021 (chart below). A full restoration of Iran’s output may add over 2 million bpd to global supply. This may disrupt a nuanced balance in the supply-demand relationship as OPEC+ moves towards lifting output caps to meet rising global demand.

An OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled on June 1st. Leaders of the oil cartel are widely expected to stick to their plan to gradually increase output from May to July. A potential return of Iranian barrels might be taken into consideration, reining in the coalition’s appetite to further increase supply any time soon.

Iran Crude Oil Total Exports – Past 5 Years

Crude Oil Prices Drop on APAC Viral Resurgence, Iranian Supply Worries

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

On the bright side, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)reported a 1.66-million-barrel decline in crude inventories, compared to a baseline forecast of a 1.05 million draw for the week ending May 21st. This underscored strong energy demand as North America enters the summer driving season and the economic recovery gathers pace.

Today, US GDP, durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims figures will be closely eyed by traders for clues about the health of the economy. Stronger data may underpin energy prices whereas weaker ones may lead to the reverse. Find out more from the DailyFX calendar.

Technically, WTI is challenging a key resistance level at 66.50 (the 200% Fibonacci extension) for a third time this month. A successful attempt may open the door for further upside potential towards $ 68.00. Another failed try however, may lead to a pullback with an eye on $ 62.23 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) for support. Negative MACD divergence suggests that near-term momentum may be tilted to the downside.

WTI Crude Oil PriceDaily Chart

Crude Oil Prices Drop on APAC Viral Resurgence, Iranian Supply Worries

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES