Euro (EUR/USD)Price, Chart, and Analysis
- EUR/USD struggling with 1.2200 – bigger test lies ahead.
- Quiet start to a quiet week.
A week that starts with little on the economic calendar to get traders motivated may see EUR/USD treading water ahead of a clutch of more interesting data points that start tomorrow. All of these high-importance releases have the ability to move EUR/USD and should be carefully monitored.
For all market-moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.
EUR/USD continues to struggle with resistance around 1.2243/46, despite the recent trend higher remaining intact. The one-month series of higher lows and higher highs remain in place, while the three simple moving averages are now in a positive set-up, with the 50-dsma breaking above the 200-dsma to form a golden cross. For the pair to move higher, resistance needs to be broken and opened above, to allow the January 6 high at 1.2349 to come into play. The US dollar basket (DXY) has pared back its opening losses, albeit minor losses, but in today’s thin liquidity, any nudge higher in the greenback will weigh on EUR/USD again.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (September 2020 – May 24, 2021)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -1% | 1% | -1% |
| Weekly | 2% | -15% | -4% |
Retail trader data shows 36.80% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.72 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 13.15% higher than yesterday and 13.49% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.73% higher than yesterday and 5.54% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
