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Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist

DOW JONES, HANG SENG, ASX 200 INDEX OUTLOOK:

  • Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes closed +1.06%, +1.49% and +2.17% respectively
  • US retail sales growth unexpectedly stalled in April as the boost from stimulus checks faded
  • Asia-Pacific equities may follow a positive lead, but viral resurgence and lockdowns remain top concerns

US Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Pandemic, Asia-Pacific Week-Ahead:

US markets shrugged off a slight miss in April’s retail sales figures and closed broadly higher on Friday. The technology sector rebounded sharply as slower-than-expected spending growth cooled tapering fears. The Commerce Department reported a flat MoM reading in April following a 10.7% surge in March, suggesting that the boost from stimulus checks is fading. Looking ahead, record savings and post-Covid economic reopening may still underpin spending in the months to come.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure came in at 82.8, compared to a baseline forecast of 90.4. This also marked a sharp decline from the previous month’s reading of 88.3, suggesting that rising inflation expectations are weighing on consumer confidence. This followed a much poorer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report last week alongside a rapid increase in average hourly salary due to a shortage in labor supply. Rapidly rising wages and prices may be starting to constrain the recovery in economic activity.

On the other hand, poorer economic readings alleviated investors’ concerns about tapering Fed stimulus. This reinforced a rebound in Wall Street stocks last Friday, narrowing weekly losses for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes to -1.14%, -1.39% and -2.34% respectively. This week, the release of FOMC meeting minutes leads the economic docket alongside Euro area inflation figures and the Australian jobs report. Find out more from theDailyFX calendar.

US Retail Sales (MoM)

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

Source: Trading Economics

Asia-Pacific markets look set to kick off the week on the front foot. Futures in Japan, mainland China, Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are pointing to a higher start on Monday. Bitcoin edged lower after Elon Musk replied “Indeed” to a tweet that hinted Tesla may have sold or could soon sell its Bitcoin holdings.

Singapore returned to quasi-lockdown on Sunday amid rapidly rising community Covid-19 cases. The Straits Times Index tumbled over 2% after the government tightened social-distancing measures on Friday. The near-term outlook remains cloudy as mutant viral strains appear to be more contagious and fatal than the previous ones. Escalating pandemic situations across India, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore hint at tighter border restrictions and more lockdowns across the Asia-Pacific, threatening the economic recovery in the region.

Looking back to Friday’s close, 8 out of 9 Dow Jones sectors ended higher, with 83.3% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Energy (+2.62%), materials (+2.57%) and financials (+2.20%) were among the best performers, while communication services (-2.01%) trailed behind.

Dow Jones Sector Performance 14-05-2021

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Dow Jones Index Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones index hit the 200% Fibonacci extension level (34,920) and has since pulled back slightly. Prices remain within an “Ascending Channel” formed since early November, the ceiling and the floor of which serve as key support and resistance levels respectively. The MACD indicator formed a bearish crossover and trended lower, suggesting that upward momentum is fading.

Dow Jones Index Daily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis:

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) breached below the range-bound zone between 28,290 and 29,344 last week (chart below). This may open the door for further losses with an eye on 27,505 (the previous low) for support. The 20- and 50-day SMA lines are about to cross below the 100-day line, forming a “Death Cross”. The MACD indicator is trending below the neutral midpoint, suggesting that bearish momentum may be prevailing.

Hang Seng IndexDaily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

ASX 200 Index Technical Analysis:

The ASX 200 index pulled back from record highs after a failed attempt to breach the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level at 7,126. Prices have also breached below a “Rising Wedge”, hinting at further downside potential with an eye on 6,920 (the 50-day SMA) for support. The MACD indicator formed a bearish crossover and trended lower, suggesting that upward momentum may be fading.

ASX 200 Index – Daily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook: Tech Rebound Bolsters Risk Appetite

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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