Key Talking Points:
US and European stocks continue to push to record highs boosted by stronger than expected inflation and retail sales in the US, suggesting that the economy is growing strongly. The DAX 30 was able to break away from its constrained range and is now above the 127% Fibonacci extension (15,424) which I had mentioned previously as the next likely target.
The current backdrop is still supportive of the stock market as the massive amounts of stimulus poured into the economy is aiding economic recovery, but Central Banks are still cautioning about a few tough months ahead as the vaccine has its full effect on containing the spread of Covid-19. But investors are still betting on a smooth recovery in the next few months as most countries have picked up their vaccination rate ahead of the summer. Many still remain hopeful that the summer holiday season will be able to go ahead so information regarding the spread of the virus will be crucial in the next month or so, as will up-to-date economic data as an insight into the actual recovery in the economy.
DAX 30 Levels
The break above 15,500 is a strong signal that buyers remain in control and we’re likely to see further gains in the coming days in the DAX 30 if price is able to overcome the resistance it faced last Friday at 15,520. Momentum indicators are showing overbought conditions again so we may see some sideways consolidation before the DAX 30 attempts a new push higher, at which point the ascending trendline is likely to offer short-term support at 15,400.
DAX 30 Daily chart
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 20% | 1% | 6% |
| Weekly | 70% | -26% | -12% |
EUR/USD Levels
A fresh round of selling pressure in the US Dollar has allowed EUR/USD to break above the 1.2000 mark this morning after several days of tough resistance. The round, psychological number had halted many attempts to push higher last week, weakening the bullish potential in the pair. But the sideways trend of the last few days seems to have been enough to allow positive momentum to gather again.
The good thing for the euro is that the vaccination rate in the continent continues to pick up steam and the improvement in this area is unlikely to be fully priced into the common currency, allowing for more support in the coming weeks. That said, the risk from the other side of the pair is also present. The weakness in the US Dollar is related to weakening bond yields and an improving economic outlook, but a reversal in any of these factors would see a quick rebound from the safe-haven currency, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
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--- Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst
Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin
