News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/1mjDURi237
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.40% US 500: 1.29% Germany 30: 0.27% France 40: 0.19% FTSE 100: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/dmtXTwOHYk
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Cryptocurrency market a sea of red. Ethereum/Bitcoin spread keeps positive sentiment. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/JQrMw98w3V https://t.co/vWwSNBi91L
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.34% Silver: -0.07% Oil - US Crude: -2.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/5xqZi7nDzM
  • Seems we have found the BTD mentality. 15-minute chart of the $SPX. Biggest opening hour rally thus far since March 9th https://t.co/bnzEVDGQTs
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.78%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 69.21%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nWhPrkgMS5
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.18% Silver: -0.49% Oil - US Crude: -2.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/NPv5vwHjXT
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.39% Wall Street: 0.06% Germany 30: -0.21% France 40: -0.23% FTSE 100: -1.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/LEp8Xu4W5K
  • Pullback has the 14000 level in focus as support. Support is important for short-term outlook. Get your $GBP market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/rPEgnVP7lY https://t.co/2b11tg6ZDV
Short AUD/CAD: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

Short AUD/CAD: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

Justin McQueen, Analyst

AUD/CAD Q2 Forecast: Short AUD/CAD – A Return of US Exceptionalism

Advertisement

Much like my top trade for Q1 (CAD/CHF), which has generated a 7% return (at the time of writing), I will be sticking with the bullish theme for CAD. Heading into Q2, I am bearish on AUD/CAD on US economic outperformance, BoC tapering and favourable positioning.

A $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package has seen a whole host of economists revising higher US growth expectations, which should benefit the Canadian Dollar more so than the Aussie on spillover effects. This also ties into the Federal Reserve which will be looking towards applying the brakes on monetary policy stimulus as strong US data is recognised. This means that the dot plots may shift towards a 2023 hike at the June meeting. Meanwhile, the rally in global bond yields has raised concerns of a taper tantrum 2.0. Looking back at the first taper tantrum in 2013, AUD/CAD shorts performed well.

AUD/CAD vs. US10 Year Yield

AUDCAD, AUD/CAD, Refinitiv

Source: Refinitiv

The Bank of Canada is slowly beginning to head for the exit as crisis-fighting stimulus measures are closed, suggesting that the central bank could taper asset purchases from the current CAD 4bln/week as soon as April. In contrast, the RBA maintains the view that very significant monetary support will be needed for some time with the Governor stating that markets expectation of rate rises in 2022 and 2023 is not shared by the bank. This growing divergence is likely to weigh on AUD/CAD.

Looking at CFTC Commitment of Traders net speculative positioning figures, it seems the markets are slightly net long AUD/CAD, raising asymmetric risks on the downside for the pair in times of market turbulence. With Aussie net longs nearing stretched levels, risk-reward looks relatively attractive for AUD/CAD shorts.

Net Speculative Positioning in AUD and CAD (% of OI) – 3yr Z-Score

Net Speculative Positioning in AUD and CAD

Source: Refinitiv

As the graph shows below, seasonal patterns tend to favour AUD/CAD bears particularly midway through Q2 with the worst month for AUD/CAD occurring in May.

AUD/CAD Historical Performance Chart

AUD/CAD, AUD, CAD

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES