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US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • USD Short Covering Persists
  • AUD/USD Longs Slashed, Bears to Engage at 0.7700
  • Oversized GBP Pullback on Position Squaring

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Longs Slashed - COT Report

It’s a familiar story in the G10 space with the latest CFTC positioning update showing another round of USD short covering as net shorts were cut by $2.17bln, with overall short USD bets at the lowest since May 2020. The only currency to be bought against the greenback had been the Japanese Yen with net shorts reduced by $170mln. That said, given the squeeze in bullish JPY bets, the currency remains heavily oversold and thus I do not rule out an extension in the reversal seen in spot JPY over the past week with USDJPY back below 109.

The largest positioning change on an open interest adjusted basis had occurred in the Australian Dollar as net longs were cut by 2/3. Going forward, as positions are squared, risks remain tilted to the downside for AUD with a move to 0.7700 likely to entice Aussie bears.

Elsewhere, another currency that investors are notable bullish on is the Pound, although, it is worth keeping in mind that last week’s underperformance will likely be reflected in next week’s release. As I have mentioned previously, pullbacks are likely to be exacerbated by positioning, which looks to have been the case in recent sessions, particularly in EUR/GBP. However, with the UK easing lockdown measures further while Europe extends restrictive measures, the recent position clear out may present an opportunity to reload on EUR/GBP pullbacks.

Weekly FX Positioning

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to April 6th, released April 9th)

The Analytical Abilities of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Positioning

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

GBP/USD Positioning

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

AUD/USD Positioning

US Dollar Bear Exit Persists, GBP & AUD Longs Slashed - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

If you would like to receive the full COT FX breakdown, contact IG.

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