News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/4dhCP5pnxM
  • Gold is facing the neckline of a Double Bottom Pattern after bouncing off a confirmed longer-term trendline. Is a bullish reversal in order? Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/kLXZewWBMd https://t.co/w1Nu0z569m
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/Gn41XsGktg
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/obH0RFLKhC
  • It was a big Q1 for $USDJPY but so far Q2 has been a far different tone. Which side will prevail? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/TxlD3zoglZ https://t.co/rUQnokAx30
USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • USD Net Shorts at a 1 Year Low
  • Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable to Pullbacks
  • AUD Longs Looking Stretched

USD Shorts at 1 Year Lows, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

In the latest CFTC data to March 30th, investors have continued to pile into the US Dollar as net shorts were cut by an additional $2.6bln, taking overall short USD positions to its lowest level in a year. The changes in positioning were predominantly against the Euro, which saw outflows of $2.87bln. As I have mentioned previously, the theme of US exceptionalism is picking up and is among the focal points for my top Q2 FX trade idea. That said, with strong US data ahead, this is likely to keep the greenback underpinned, particularly against the Euro, which has continued to struggle from its slow vaccine rollout.

Another currency that has garnered attention is the Japanese Yen, which saw a more modest increase in net shorts, up $670mln with real money accounts the main reasoning behind the rise. Subsequently, investors now hold the largest net short in JPY since May 2019. Aside from looking technically stretched on the topside, there is very little going for the Japanese Yen on the fundamental side with indices pushing to record highs in the US and Europe (JPY negative) and US economic data also surpassing expectations. In turn, while rising US yields may have calmed down slightly as of late, a robust economic rebound continues to point to higher yields, which has been the main driving force behind the move in USDJPY.

The Pound saw a pick-up in net longs once more after a $270mln increase, while adjusted for open interest, the currency remains the largest long at 17.9% and as I have said previously, this makes GBP vulnerable to oversized pullbacks. That being said, outsized moves on the upside in EUR/GBP is likely to be the preferred avenue to fade GBP weakness.

Across the commodity currencies, the AUD sentiment improved as net longs grew by $480mln, while NZD and CAD were relatively unchanged. Going back to the Aussie, positioning is beginning to look slightly stretched with a z-score of 1.91, potentially paving the way for relative NZD outperformance in the short term.

AUD/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% 0% -3%
Weekly 4% 0% 2%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Weekly FX Positioning

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to March 30th, released April 2nd)

The Analytical Abilities of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Positioning

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

USD/JPY Positioning

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

GBP/USD Positioning

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

AUD/USD Positioning

USD Bulls, Euro Sentiment Soft, GBP Vulnerable, AUD Longs Stretched - COT Report

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX

If you would like to receive the full COT FX breakdown, contact IG.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES