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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Slumps as US Treasury Yields Hit a Fresh 14-Month High

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Slumps as US Treasury Yields Hit a Fresh 14-Month High

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price and Chart

  • Gold price probing sub-$1,700/oz.
  • US 10 years now yield 1.77%, a new 14-month high.
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For all market-moving events and data releases, see the DailyFXCalendar

The price of gold is falling sharply and threatening to take out $1,700/oz in the near-term as US Treasury yields continue to move higher. The closely watched benchmark 10-year now offers 1.77%, a 14-month high, and the likelihood is that US bond yields will go even higher over the next few months with expectations of 2% already being baked into the market. US President Biden is expected to unveil his ‘Build Back Better’ infrastructure plans this week, with the market expecting fresh spending of up to USD3 trillion to re-boot the US economy. With growth and inflation expectations both on the rise, gold will continue to probe lower levels.

US Treasury 10-Year Yields Daily Price Chart

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Slumps as US Treasury Yields Hit a Fresh 14-Month High

The US dollar continues to gain strength and is now back above 93.00 and heading even higher. The daily chart suggests little in the way of resistance until a pair of prior highs at 94.31 and 94.80 come into view. The 20-day sma has now broken through the 200-day sma adding to the current bullish greenback sentiment.

US Dollar Price Outlook: US Dollar Rally Driving USD/JPY to Fresh Multi-Month Highs

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Price Chart

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Slumps as US Treasury Yields Hit a Fresh 14-Month High

The daily gold chart reveals potential support off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,689/oz. ahead of the recent multi-month low and prior support between $1,670/oz. and $1,676/oz. Below here support becomes harder to identify before $1,611/oz. and $1,600/oz. come into play. The clean break and open below the 20-day simple moving average adds to the negative sentiment in the gold space.

Popular Moving Averages and How to Use Them

Gold Daily Price Chart (July 2020 – March 30, 2021)

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Slumps as US Treasury Yields Hit a Fresh 14-Month High
Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -16% -2%
Weekly 4% 22% 7%
What does it mean for price action?
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Client sentiment data show 85.06% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.69 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.83% higher than yesterday and 0.71% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.63% lower than yesterday and 21.46% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

What is Market Sentiment and How Does it Work?

What is your view on Gold – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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