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Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Set-Up Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Set-Up Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | Month/Quarter End Flows to Drive Short Term Direction
  • IG Client Sentiment Suggests Mixed AUD/USD Outlook

AUD/USD | Month/Quarter End Flows to Drive Short Term Direction

As we approach the end of Q1, economic data is likely to take a backseat with month/quarter end flows likely to drive G10 FX. Early investment bank signals have indicated that the USD could be better bid, which has been the case throughout much of the week with the greenback taking out the 200DMA. Although, while the USD uptrend has paused for breath this morning, I am expecting the move higher to extend from the beginning of the next week with US Corporate demand likely to come into play for the next week. That said, AUD/USD is putting in a modest bounce having found support at the YTD low (0.7562) with the pair testing resistance at 0.7620-35, coinciding with the 100DMA, further resistance seen at 0.7690-0.7700.

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Set-Up Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

Moving Average (MA) Explained for Traders

IG Client Sentiment Signals a Mixed AUD/USD Outlook

Retail trader data shows 57.46% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.94% lower than yesterday and 25.94% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.33% lower than yesterday and 3.86% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Set-Up Levels to Watch

Source: IG

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