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Canadian Dollar Outlook: Key USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Levels to Watch

Canadian Dollar Outlook: Key USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

CAD, AUD/CAD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD/CAD | Bullish Breakout on the Horizon?
  • AUD/CAD | Downside Risks Remain on Stronger US Outlook
Canadian Dollar Outlook: Key USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Levels to Watch

USD/CAD | Bullish Breakout on the Horizon?

Once again the USD is attempting a bullish reversal against CAD with the pair retesting trendline resistance stemming from the Q1 2020 peak. Softer oil prices has also come to the detriment of the Loonie with Brent and WTI crude futures off some 4% and thus exacerbated the move higher. The prior two attempts at a bullish reversal in USD/CAD reversal saw the pair move 2.3% higher back in January and February, from the recent low this would suggest the move has scope towards 1.2650. However, the key short area in the short-term is at 1.2585-1.2600, in turn, should the pair close above here, this opens up the door towards 1.2700.

Canadian Dollar Technical Levels

Support

Resistance

1.2550

-

1.2585

-

1.2464

Feb 25th low

1.2600

-

1.2361

YTD Low

1.2656

50DMA

Canadian Dollar Chart: Daily Time Frame

Canadian Dollar Outlook: Key USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

USD/CAD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 12% -5% 6%
Weekly 11% -6% 4%
What does it mean for price action?
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AUD/CAD | Downside Risks Remain on Stronger US Outlook

Given Canada’s proximity to the US, downside risks remains for the cross as US fundamentals continue to improve following the recent fiscal stimulus package. Alongside this, the BoC are also comparatively more hawkish than the RBA with the former possibly looking to taper QE purchases in April. Elsewhere, positioning also signals that AUD/CAD is asymmetrically tilted to the downside given that AUD net-longs are somewhat stretched from a historical basis. On the technical front, the 0.9700 handle remains a stumbling block for AUD/CAD upside, while support at 0.9600-20 has curbed further losses for now. As it stands, the cross remains in a short-term range, however, I favour fading rallies in the cross.

Support

Resistance

0.9618

50% Fib

0.9700

-

0.9600

-

0.9710

Feb Low

0.9598

200DMA

0.9716

100DMA

AUD/CAD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Canadian Dollar Outlook: Key USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

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