Gold Price Forecast:
- Gold has recovered slightly after falling to its lowest level since June in early March
- While price reacted quickly to longstanding support, the fundamental landscape remains unchanged
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Gold Price Recovery Slows, Treasury Yields Remain Key to Future Moves
Gold suffered significant declines in late February and early March as US Treasury yields grinded higher. Losses saw XAU/USD blow through various levels of technical support until the lower bound of the metal’s descending channel helped to arrest declines around the $1,675 mark. A picture-perfect bounce off the trendline has seen gold recover somewhat - although the comeback has slowed - and further gains might be difficult to establish if US Treasury yields rise further.
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (August 2020 - March 2021)
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Should the recovery rally gain steam once more, initial resistance might reside along the November low around $1,765 with a potential barrier shortly thereafter around $1,800. A move to the $1,800 level would see the commodity reclaim the midpoint of the descending channel that began in August. Nevertheless, the longer-term outlook remains dire for the yellow metal as months of declines show little signs of reversing without changes in the underlying fundamental landscape.
With that in mind, traders should continue to monitor the US 10-year Treasury yield as rising yields have been a source of weakness for gold. Should yields climb further as the Fed concludes its temporary changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rule, gold might enter another stage of weakness and seek support. A break beneath the descending trendline and or the March low could allow losses to accelerate. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
