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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Outlook - Battling with Resistance, Sentiment Remains Bearish

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Outlook - Battling with Resistance, Sentiment Remains Bearish

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price and Chart

  • US Treasury yields will continue to grind higher.
  • Daily gold chart throwing out some interesting signals.
Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
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The price of gold is finding it difficult to break a noted area of resistance and it is looking increasingly likely that support levels may be tested in the short- to medium-term. The precious metal is picking up a small bid of late as US tech stocks come under pressure, but while US Treasury yields continue to move higher, gold will have difficulty testing recent highs. The yield on the US 10-year touched 1.75% on Thursday, its highest level since January 2020, before fading to just below 1.70% today. The latest FOMC meeting re-affirmed that the central bank will remain accommodative until unemployment moves sustainably towards 5% or lower and that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged through 2023. The bond market however has a slightly different view and yields look likely to rise further, and test the Fed, in the coming weeks and months.

Looking at the daily chart, Thursday’s candle just missed forming a ‘bearish engulfing’ pattern, a negative set-up and one that suggest lower prices ahead. The pattern would have been confirmed if Thursday’s candle closed ($1,735/oz.) below Wednesday’s open ($1,731.5/oz.).

Trading with the Bearish Engulfing Candle

Gold will find resistance at $1,756/oz. (Thursday’s high), before the March high at $1,761/oz. and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,764.6/oz. In the current environment, gold may struggle to break these levels convincingly. The precious metal is back above the 20-day simple moving average, an indicator that has acted as resistance since early 2021 and if this remains the case, then a tightening trading range will likely force a more volatile breakout.

Moving Averages (MA) Explained for Traders

Gold Daily Price Chart (July 2020 – March 19, 2021)

Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 18% 2%
Weekly 0% -5% -2%
What does it mean for price action?
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Client sentiment data show 84.07% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.28 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

What is Market Sentiment and How Does it Work?

What is your view on Gold – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.