News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Silver is currently trading back just above the 26.00 level. The precious metal was knocked slightly lower yesterday amidst a slight jump in longer-term US yields but is attempting to move higher again today. $XAG $SLV https://t.co/3nwbQdLpRU
  • Trader confidence in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Gold remains largely undented by recent price falls and their longer-term trends higher remain intact. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/xwX3K91WyP https://t.co/GkI5ZRhv3l
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.82% Gold: 0.27% Oil - US Crude: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mbJ4BR6WeP
  • EU Drug Regulator: Benefits of J&J vaccine outweigh risks.
  • World Bank: Sees global commodity prices remaining firm around current levels in 2021 after Q1 recovery.
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tEAXFbZw1C
  • Canada extends Covid travel restrictions, only allowing essential travel to and from the US until May 21st. $USD $CAD
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.30% Oil - US Crude: 0.08% Gold: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/husHdqWE1m
  • USD contrarian properties fade as short squeeze stabilises. GBP/USD remains the largest bull bet. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/M76KY0jys3 https://t.co/9pkAItCOkl
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.35% Wall Street: -0.41% Germany 30: -0.97% FTSE 100: -1.15% France 40: -1.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0jQtVfHvdH
USD/JPY Outlook: Flattening JGB Yield Curve Ahead of FOMC Expectations

USD/JPY Outlook: Flattening JGB Yield Curve Ahead of FOMC Expectations

Warren Venketas, Markets Writer

USD/JPY ANALYSIS

Advertisement

JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The yield spread between longer dated Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) and short-term bonds have reduced (see chart below) today in anticipation of the Fed revising interest rate hikes. This comes after strong U.S. economic growth forecasts along with the BOJ suppressing hopes around 10- year yields trading within a wider band.

The U.S. Dollar has edged higher dovetailing behind the amended rate forecasts which has sustained the exponential rise on the USD/JPY currency pair.

JGB YIELDS ACROSS 2,5,10 AND 30-YEAR BONDS

JGB yield spread

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, Refinitiv

USD/JPY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

High impact events this week should result in significant volatility pre and post-announcements. Both central banks will be followed closely as forecasts and changes in outlook could lead to big shifts in market conditions. Although interest rates may remain flat for both central banks, forward guidance will at the forefront for market participants.

USD calendarJPY calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Get Your Free JPY Forecast
Get My Guide

USD/JPY Daily Chart:

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Year-to-date the greenback has appreciated 5.78% against Yen which is enduring as USD/JPY holds above the 109.00 psychological level. Fresh 9-month highs are in sight as June 2020 highs serve as upcoming resistance at 109.85 as fundamental prompts are in focus with central bank announcements around the corner .

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests possible bearish divergence (blue) – when price moves in the opposite direction to the RSI momentum indicator. This phenomena is indicative of slowing upside momentum which could come to an end. This being said, it is difficult timing divergence so caution should be exercised around this input.

Should bearish divergence unfold, key levels to the downside will come from July 2020 swing high at 108.17 followed by the 107.50 support zone.

Key technical points to consider:

  • 109.85 resistance target
  • 108.17 support target
  • RSI bearish divergence
Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 20
( 17:04 GMT )
Keep up to date with price action setups!
Trading Price Action
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT FAVORS BULLS

USD/JPY Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 0% 0%
Weekly 4% -5% -1%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

IGCS shows retail traders are currently net long on USD/JPY, with 39% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

--- Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES