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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Outlook - Looking Over the Edge of a Cliff

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Outlook - Looking Over the Edge of a Cliff

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price and Chart

  • Gold remains vulnerable to rising US Treasury yields.
  • Retail traders remain heavily long of the precious metal.
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A volatile week in the gold space with the precious metal trading between $1,674/oz. and $1,740/oz in a matter of just 5 days. Both rally and sell-off were quickly retraced and the precious metal now sits around $1,700/oz. and is starting to look weak again. The driver for this week’s volatility has come from the US Treasury market where yields continue to climb higher, tarnishing the allure of gold.

The daily chart suggests that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level at $1,689/oz. is no longer firm support, due to gold opening below this level on Tuesday, leaving a couple of prior swing lows between $1,660/oz. and $1,670/oz. as a potential support area. Below here the chart suggests the next line of support is back at $1,611/oz. All three simple moving averages also suggest a continued bearish sentiment, and the ‘death cross’ 50-/200-day sma crossover from January 6 continues to play out. Any bullish move should find resistance at $1,741/oz. this week’s high print and the 20-day sma.

With US Treasury yields continuing to edge higher, it is likely that Monday’s multi-month low at $1,674/oz. will be tested again, opening the way down to the low $1,600s in the short- to medium-term if Monday’s level is broken conclusively.

Moving Averages (MA) Explained for Traders

Gold Daily Price Chart (July 2020 – March 12, 2021)

Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% -14% -5%
Weekly -2% 5% 0%
What does it mean for price action?
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Client sentiment data show 83.88% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.21 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

What is Market Sentiment and How Does it Work?

What is your view on Gold – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.