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Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, EUR/AUD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, EUR/AUD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | US Yield Fluctuations Offers More Two-Way Price Action
  • EUR/AUD | Euro an Attractive Funder for Carry Trades

AUD/USD | US Yield Fluctuations Offers More Two-Way Price Action

Current trading conditions remain choppy with major FX markets devoid of any notable trends with the fluctuations in the US fixed income space offering more two-way price action in FX. This remains a key driver for FX, where the US 10yr has bounced back from its drop earlier in the week, to trade at 1.60%. Subsequently, this has lent support for the greenback with a move back to the 92.00 handle. Meanwhile, AUD/USD has dropped back to its 50DMA (0.7738) with the psychological 0.7800 handle proving to be a step too far. While momentum indicators remain soften for AUD/USD, the trend has begun to weaken and thus reinforcing the view that markets will remain directionless.

Moving Average (MA) Explained for Traders

Looking ahead to next week, domestic data will garner attention with the Jobs report and retail sales scheduled. However, the main event will of course be the FOMC meeting. Elsewhere, after US President Biden signed the $1.9trillion Covid-19 relief package into law, stimulus cheques may hit bank accounts as soon as the weekend. In turn, this will make the case for being bearish risk assets into the FOMC meeting slightly difficult. Of note, a recent Deutsche Bank survey highlighted that young investors planned to put 40% of their stimulus cheques into the market.

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, EUR/AUD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

AUD/USD Bullish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 5% 1%
Weekly -21% 14% -5%
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EUR/AUD | Euro an Attractive Funder for Carry Trades

Downside in the cross has showed little signs of abating with the 3-year low in focus (1.5248). Comments this morning from Germany’s Health Agency Head stated that the country appears to be at the start of the third Coronavirus wave, adding that some German states are seeing more Covid patients in ICU units. This also comes at a time where the EU as a whole has struggled with their vaccine rollout. Alongside this, with the ECB announcing a significantly higher pace of PEPP purchases for the next quarter in order to stem the rise in nominal bond yields, this could see the Euro remain an attractive funder for carry trades and thus keep the pressure on EUR/AUD.

EUR/AUD Chart: Weekly Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, EUR/AUD Levels to Watch

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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