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Breaking: ECB PEPP Purchases to be Significantly Higher, EUR/USD Dips

Breaking: ECB PEPP Purchases to be Significantly Higher, EUR/USD Dips

Justin McQueen, Analyst

EUR/USD, ECB Price Analysis & News

  • ECB PEPP Purchases Will be Significantly Higher in Next Quarter
  • ECB Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged as Expected

ECB to PEPP Purchases to Run at a Significantly Faster Rate

As widely expected the ECB left monetary policy settings unchanged. That said, with the focus on the ECB’s possible response to the move higher in nominal bond yields, the ECB have announced that their PEPP purchases will operate at significantly higher pace over the next quarter. In reaction to the slightly more dovish than expected statement, EUR/USD and Bund yields have come under pressure, while the DAX briefly jumped to session highs. EUR/USD levels to watch.

The European Central Bank: A Forex Trader’s Guide

EURUSD, German Bund Instant Reaction

Breaking: ECB PEPP Purchases to be Significantly Higher, EUR/USD Dips

Source: Refinitiv

Summary of ECB Lagarde’s Press Conference

What appears to be the norm for ECB meetings at present is the timely ECB source reports ahead of Lagarde’s press conference. Today was no different with sources stating that the governing council agreed that risks to the outlook have become more balanced. While this had been reflected in the slight upgrade in near term growth expectations, the ECB President stressed the fact that uncertainty remains.

ECB GDP Forecasts

2021 +4% vs +3.9% prior

2022 +4.1% vs +4.2% prior

2023 2.1% vs +2.1% prior

On inflation, the ECB expect to see a pick-up in prices, however, this will mostly be due to transitory factors. President Lagarde added that while inflation could hit 2% by the end of the year, the ECB will look through this.

ECB HICP forecasts

2021 +1.5% vs +1.0% prior

2022 +1.2%% vs +1.1% prior

2023 +1.4% vs +1.4% prior

The reason behind to decision to step up the pace of PEPP purchases is to push back against the move in nominal yields, where the central bank notes that market rates can pose a risk to wider financing conditions and thus lead to premature tightening. While the ECB weekly purchase data is likely to garner attention, Lagarde stated that next week is unlikely to see a big rise in PEPP purchases with large redemptions due.

For the full commentary of the ECB Press Conference check out the @DailyFXTeam Twitter Handle.

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