Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price and Chart
The price of gold continues to move lower and is set to test its recent nadir around $1,806/oz. The precious metal has been hit recently by a better risk-on tone and by a steeper US Treasury yield curve, a signal that economic expansion and a pick-up in inflation is expected further down the line. The closely watched UST2-10 curve is now over 100 basis points, a level not seen in nearly four years. This pick-up in yields is also underpinning the US dollar, which looks to have made a short-term bottom.
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The daily gold chart shows the precious metal moving towards the mid-January low around $1,806/oz. with little in way of support after that before the late-November horizontal low at $1,764/oz. This week’s break lower has pushed gold below all three simple moving-averages, a negative signal, and with the US dollar on the rise, and with covid-19 vaccination programs picking up, gold may continue to press lower. It is important to note however that tomorrow sees the latest US Labor Report (NFPs) released, a known and sometimes unpredictable mover of the US dollar, so caution may be warranted ahead of the release.
Moving Averages (MA) Explained for Traders
Gold Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – February 4, 2021)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 10% | -10% | 4% |
| Weekly | -7% | -7% | -7% |
IG retail trader data show 85.80% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 6.04 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.
Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.
What is Market Sentiment and How Does it Work?
Silver is also under pressure and is off its recent spike high made after the reddit retail crowd named the semi-precious metal as its next target. Unlike other Wall Street Bet names like GME and AMC, there was never any real follow-through in silver which has given back most of the move. Unlike gold, silver is currently being supported by all three simple moving-averages, and while this remains the case, silver may continue to hold current levels.
Silver Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – February 4, 2021)
What is your view on Gold and Silver – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
