News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist


  • Gold prices are working on a three-day rally to US$ 1,850, up nearly 2.5% from Monday’s lows
  • WTI crude oil prices jumped 2% on Yellen’s push for fiscal stimulus, which raises reflation hopes
  • A weakening US Dollar and stimulus hopes may continue to support commodity prices

Gold prices climbed for a third day as the US Dollar fell alongside Treasury yields, alleviating pressure on precious metal prices. Last night, US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen boosted market confidence by showing her support for Biden’s US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus package in the Senate confirmation hearing. Yellen’s comments revitalized hopes for reflation and brightened the prospects for economic recovery, sending risk assets broadly higher alongside gold and crude oil prices.

Reflation hopes may encourage investors to park their money in equities in search of yields and growth, resulting in a relative underperformance of gold compared to stocks. Gold prices have lagged behind the S&P 500 stock market benchmark since August 2020, and this gap may widen further if economy rebounds at a faster-than-expected pace with the rollout of Covid vaccines and more fiscal aid.

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Nonetheless, a large fiscal spending package also points to a higher inflation outlook, which will likely lead to lower real yields and underpin gold prices. Precious metals are perceived as a good inflation hedge and store of value, and their prices tend to rise alongside inflation expectations and the amount of quantitative easing.

Looking ahead, gold traders are eyeing President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration later today for clues about his agenda priorities in the first 100 days in the White House, while intense security measures were put in place to prevent political violence.

Technically, gold prices rebounded from the ceiling of the “Descending Channel” after suffering severe selling in the previous two weeks (chart below). The overall trend remains bearish-biased however, as suggested by the MACD indicator. Immediate support and resistance levels can be found at US$ 1,807 (previous low) and US$ 1,855 (50-Day SMA) respectively.

Gold PriceDaily Chart

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices


WTI Crude oil prices advanced more than 2% to US$ 53.35 on reflation hopes and a weakening US Dollar following Janet Yellen’s Senate comments. S&P Global points to a 2.5-milion-barrel draw in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending January 15th, marking a sixth consecutive weekly decline. The actual data will be released by the EIA on January 22nd. Oil prices have historically displayed a negative correlation with inventories, with a 12-month correlation coefficient of -0.418 (chart below).

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

WTI prices have surged more than 56% since early November, buoyed by vaccine news, a weaker US Dollar, fiscal stimulus as well as Saudi Arabia’s recent unilateral production cut. Yellen’s support for Biden’s US$ 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package may add a fresh catalyst for the energy demand outlook. Earlier this week, China has released upbeat Q4 GDP growth and industrial production figures that boosted investor confidence, reflecting a robust recovery in the world’s second largest economy that may underpin energy demand.

Technically, WTI breached above a key chart resistance of US$ 52.03 (127.2% Fibonacci extension) and has since opened the door for further upside potential with an eye on US$ 55.23 (161.8% Fibonacci extension). Prices are trending higher within an “Ascending Channel” as highlighted on the chart below, reflecting strong upward momentum.

WTI Crude OilDaily Chart

Gold, Crude Oil Outlook: Weaker Dollar and Reflation Hopes Underpin Prices

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.