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EUR/GBP Price Outlook - Breaking Multi-Month Support Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision

EUR/GBP Price Outlook - Breaking Multi-Month Support Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/GBP Price, News and Analysis:

  • EUR/GBP pushing below 0.8865 support.
  • The ECB press conference will be key for the Euro.

The European Central Bank (ECB) releases its latest monetary policy decision Thursday and while all settings are expected to remain untouched, the post-decision press conference may make for interesting listening. The ECB noted at the December meeting that it continues to monitor the strength of the Euro and its effect on inflation and ECB President Christine Lagarde may well return to this during the press conference. President-elect Joe Biden’s recent USD1.9 trillion stimulus proposal will continue to push the US dollar lower, leaving the Euro at risk of further appreciation. The latest Euro-Zone inflation data showed little price pressure in the zone and tomorrow’s commentary is likely to be key for the short- and medium-term path of the single currency.

EUR/GBP Price Outlook - Breaking Multi-Month Support Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.

EUR/GBP continues to press lower with Sterling’s strength currently in charge of the move. The 0.8860/65 level has been identified in the past as an important support area and the pair have just drifted through here, although not convincingly as yet. For EUR/GBP to make an attempt on a prior swing-low area around 0.8665/78, the pair will need to open below current support and break through the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.8747. The daily chart does show a negative moving average set-up which will stem any bullish sentiment.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (February 2020 – January 20, 2021)

EUR/GBP Price Outlook - Breaking Multi-Month Support Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision

IG Retail Trader datashows 72.03% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.58 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall.Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/GBP trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.