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Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Ride Wild Volatility Wave While Ripple (XRP) Remains Mired

Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Ride Wild Volatility Wave While Ripple (XRP) Remains Mired

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) just misses $35,000 before slumping below $29,000
  • Altcoins playing catch-up but still lag Bitcoin (BTC) by a wide margin.
  • Ripple (XRP) bogged down by SEC lawsuit.
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Bitcoin has been on a wild, bullish ride of late, hitting a fresh all-time high yesterday just under $35,000 before slumping back below $28,000 today in a flash sell-off. The market has regained some composure and is trading around $30,000, but volatility levels are back at the highs seen in late-2017/early-2018 when the market soared before slumping. This time around there are more bullish arguments for Bitcoin, notably the Fed printing more US dollars and increased Bitcoin take-up by institutional investors, so any further sell-off is likely to be limited.

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The Bitcoin rally also produced a delayed rally in the rest of the market – altcoins – with some seeing gains of around 50% in a 48-hour period. Altcoins traditionally play catch-up to Bitcoin and all of them are still some distance below their late 2017/early 2018 all-time highs, suggesting that this rally may have more room to run.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart (June – January 4, 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Ride Wild Volatility Wave While Ripple (XRP) Remains Mired
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Retail trader data show72.45% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.63 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall.Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Bitcoin trading bias.

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While the rest of the market continues to push sharply higher, Ripple (XRP) remains stuck with any minor gains finding sellers. Ripple Labs is facing an SEC lawsuit over alleged securities mis-selling and while this remains, then Ripple will be unable to move higher, whatever the altcoin market does.

Ripple (XRP) Crushed as SEC Looks to Sue for Alleged Securities Violations

Ripple (XRP/USD) Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – January 4, 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Ride Wild Volatility Wave While Ripple (XRP) Remains Mired
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -89% -100% -89%
Weekly -99% -100% -99%
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IG retail client data show 98.10% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 51.54 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.18% lower than yesterday and 28.46% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 21.21% lower than yesterday and 79.53% lower from last week. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Ripple-bearish contrarian trading bias.

What are your views on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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