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FTSE MIB Forecast: Bears Creep In as Travel Restrictions Dampen Holiday Spirit

FTSE MIB Forecast: Bears Creep In as Travel Restrictions Dampen Holiday Spirit

Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Analyst

Key Talking Points:

  • Rising Covid-19 cases cause investors to be cautious
  • Italy fears for Christmas season as travel restrictions come into place
  • FTSE MIB follows Wall Street and heads lower


Covid-19 cases have now become the center of attention again as the US has the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the world, and the figure doesn’t stop growing. Positive vaccine news helped equity markets surge in November leaving the actual virus on the side-lines, but stricter containment measures are a real threat to economic recovery, causing investors to take on a more cautious note towards the year end.

Stock Market Holiday Calendar 2020/21

US Coronavirus cases

FTSE MIB Forecast: Bears Creep In as Travel Restrictions Dampen Holiday Spirit

In Europe, the health situation is faring a little better as new cases are declining since reaching a peak in mid-November. Italy, which has been one of the toughest hit by both waves of the pandemic, continues to have strict travel rules going in to the Christmas period, meaning one of the most profitable seasons of the year for the tourism sector is looking rather bleak, adding to already hard winter and summer periods.

Italy cumulative and new cases Covid-19

FTSE MIB Forecast: Bears Creep In as Travel Restrictions Dampen Holiday Spirit

Source: Refinitiv

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The FTSE MIB, Italy’s equity benchmark, has been trading a little softer in the month of December, largely following what we’ve seen on Wall Street, after a strong November left most stocks in the overbought area. Fundamental support remains strong as the rollout of a vaccine improves economic recovery expectations going into 2021, but we might have seen equities getting ahead of themselves in the last few weeks, meaning that borrowed future returns will need to be corrected.

FTSE MIB Daily chart

FTSE MIB Forecast: Bears Creep In as Travel Restrictions Dampen Holiday Spirit

The horizontal resistance I pointed out a few weeks back at 22,348 worked its magic pretty well, as price reversed at the end of November at a high of 22,480. Fibonacci levels are still highly relevant at this point, given the index is well below its March highs and therefore has a way to go before reversing the coronavirus losses.

I expect short-term support to continue around the current level of 21,750, whilst further bearish pressure may find buyer resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci at 21,108. Momentum indicators are showing a mixed picture, with simple moving averages placed in descending order, whilst the MACD holds its ground in negative territory, pointing to this neutral short-term direction the FTSE MIB finds itself in. We can expect price action to be contained going forward until the next catalyst erupts.

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--- Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst

Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.