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Euro Rises With ECB Delivering More Stimulus as Widely Expected

Euro Rises With ECB Delivering More Stimulus as Widely Expected

Justin McQueen, Analyst

EUR/USD Price Analysis & News

  • ECB Boosts Pandemic Program by EUR 500bln
  • Euro Edges Higher on More Stimulus, Move Contained
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ECB TAKES ACTION AS EXPECTED: As widely expected the ECB increased the envelope of PEPP by EUR 500bln to a total of EUR 1.850trillion, while also extending the program by 9-months to run until at least March 2022. The ECB also noted that they will reinvest maturing PEPP bonds at least through to the end of 2023. There will also be an extension to favourable TLTRO terms, now set until June 2022, with three additional operations conducted between June- December 2022, while allowable TLTRO borrowing will be upped to 55% from 50% of eligible loans. Elsewhere, the central bank noted that the ECB will continue to monitor exchange rate developments, expect more commentary on this matter in the press conference.

The European Central Bank: A Forex Trader’s Guide

Euro Edges Higher on More Stimulus, Move Contained

MARKET REACTION: Given that the announcement had been largely expected, the move higher in the Euro is largely contained. As a reminder, during the pandemic, more easing has not been associated with a weaker currency, given the more stimulus is supportive for growth and with rates left unchanged, Bund yields have ticked up slightly. Focus now will turn to the ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, in which the latest staff economic forecasts will be announced.

EUR/USD BEARISH
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
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Weekly -2% -19% -12%
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EUR/USD Market Reaction:

Euro Rises With ECB Delivering More Stimulus as Widely Expected

Source: IG

PRESS CONFERENCE SUMMARY

EURO APPRECIATION: Lagarde noted that the appreciation in the Euro is important, adding that it puts downward pressure on prices, while also stating that the ECB will carefully monitor FX.

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: Lagarde acknowledged that given fresh lockdown measures, the economy is expected to shrink in Q4 with incoming data highlighting a more pronounced near term impact of the pandemic.

STAFF FORECASTS

GDP Forecasts: 2020 -7.3% vs -8% prior,2021 +3.9% vs +5% prior,2022 +4.2% vs +3.2% prior,2023 +2.1%.

HICP forecasts: 2020 0.2% vs 0.3% prior, 2021 1.0% vs 1.0% prior, 2022 1.1% vs 1.3% prior, 2023 1.4%. With inflation not seen hitting the ECB’s target of near 2%, within the time horizon, more stimulus in the form of monetary and/or fiscal policy will be expected.

Hawkish vs Dovish: How Monetary Policy Affects FX Trading

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