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  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
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  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
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  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/m920Uvmngm https://t.co/yQYtfHf66s
Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist

DOW JONES, HANG SENG, ASIA-PACIFIC MARKET OUTLOOK:

  • US equity indices climbed to their record highs even though nonfarm payroll data disappointed
  • Asia-Pacific stocks opened mixed, with ASX 200 edging higher while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng opened flat
  • The US may soon start deploying the coronavirus vaccine, raising hope for a faster economic recovery
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Jobs Data, Vaccines, Asia-Pacific Stocks Weekly Outlook:

Asia-Pacific stocks look set to follow a strong US lead on Monday, although upward momentum appears to have faltered recently. A much lower-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls number reflected the deeper impact brought by the pandemic, and thus reignited hopes for more fiscal and monetary support. Some 245k nonfarm jobs were added last month, much lower than the baseline forecast of 469k. This also marks a fifth consecutive monthly slowdown in the pace of job market expansion. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 6.9% in a month before, largely due to a 0.2% decline in the labor force participation rate.

US Nonfarm Payroll – 12 months

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

Major western economies are on course to deploying coronavirus vaccines, with the UK giving the green light to the distribution of Pfizer’s version last week. US Health and Human Service Secretary Alex Azar said all Americans should be able to get vaccinated by mid next year and that the distribution could start as early as this week.

Vaccine hopes and weaker job market data sent three major US indices to their record highs on Friday. The next question may be where the US Dollar will lead stock markets to if the rollout of vaccines helps to revitalize growth and buoy inflation in the months to come. The US Dollar and the S&P 500 index exhibited high negative correlation over the past 12 months, with a correlation coefficient of -0.80. A severely oversold US Dollar flags risk for a technical rebound that may weigh on the stock markets’ rally. Read more in my USD-S&P 500 report here.

Asia-Pacific stocks have capitalized on recent tailwinds, but upward momentum appears to have faltered after scoring astonishing gains in November. Trading towards the year-end may be quieter due to seasonality and holiday reasons. The Nikkei 225 index registered a 10-year average monthly return of 0.93% in December, marking its fifth-worst-performing month. For Australia’s ASX 200 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, the 10-year average returns in December are 1.31% and 0.46% respectively.

Sector-wise, 8 out of 9 Dow sectors closed in the green, with 80.0% of the index’s constituents ending higher on Friday. Energy (+3.88%), materials (+2.71%) and information technology (+1.40%) were among the best performers, whereas consumer discretionary (-0.76%) was lagging behind.

Dow Jones Sector Performance 04-12-2020

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX

For the week ahead, here are the key market events:

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Technically, the Dow Jones continued its upward trajectory after breaking a key resistance level at 29,850 – the 76.4% Fibonacci extension (chart below). Breaking this resistance level may open the door for further upside potential towards 30,870 – the 100% Fibonacci extension. The overall trend looks bullish-biased, although the MACD indicator shows fading upward momentum. The 20-Day SMA may serve as an immediate support level.

Dow Jones IndexDaily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

Hang Seng Index Outlook:

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) appears to have regained some strength after forming a long bearish bar on November 20th. Immediate resistance levels can be found at 27,000 followed by 27,510 – the 200% Fibonacci extension. The MACD indicator has likely diverged with price movement recently, however, suggesting a short-term correction is possible.

Hang Seng Index Daily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

ASX 200 Index Outlook:

The ASX 200 index appears to have entered a range-bound market conditions, with an immediate support and resistance levels found at 6,540 and 6,725 respectively. Traders should be vigilant about a potential MACD divergence, which might signal a trend reversal. The MACD indicator has also formed a “Death Cross”, suggesting that upward momentum is fading.

ASX 200 Index Daily Chart

Dow Jones, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Edging Higher with Fading Momentum

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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