News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
USD/ZAR Forecast: Global Sentiment Overshadows SA Ratings Downgrade

USD/ZAR Forecast: Global Sentiment Overshadows SA Ratings Downgrade

Warren Venketas, Analyst


  • South African sovereign ratings cut by both Moody’s and Fitch
  • Emerging Market (EM) currencies benefit around vaccine optimism

The South African Rand is trading well below pre-lockdown levels despite a ratings downgrade last week Friday, and may be heading toward the psychological 15.0000 level before year end. Both Fitch and Moody’s provided downgrades with similar reasoning as seen below:


  • Long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings downgraded to BB- from BB due to high rising government debt, dim growth prospects and inequality.


  • Long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 due to COVID-19 shocks, debt and economic reforms.

Many economists were taking by surprise with the downgrade, which makes the continued resilience by the Rand more captivating for analysts. It is no secret that global factors have been dictating much of the Rands movement however, significant ratings news is generally expected to have more of an impact.

The primary reason for the risk seeking behavior comes after promising COVID-19 vaccine news which has favored EM markets in the search for yield. Coupled with expected US Dollar weakness as further stimulus is anticipated.


USD/ZAR daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

November has already seen a ZAR appreciation of roughly 5.8% against the greenback. Major confluence around the 15.0000 level could see profit taking by USD/ZAR shorts. The last time the 15.0000 level was breached was 21 February 2020. It is important to remember the poor economic condition in South Africa which has not been reflective in the local currency as yet. Rising debt, wage negotiations and other financial pressures stemming from the global pandemic could re-surface within the currency at a later stage.

The daily chart above shows the recent swing low 15.2086 coinciding with the 76.4% Fibonacci level which could serve as initial support in the case of further ZAR appreciation.

USD/ZAR bulls may use last week’s swing high as an upside target should the Rand give back recent gains. Catalysts could likely come from upcoming economic events (see below) and vaccine related news. The downward trend is still strong which lends itself to potential added downside.


This week will provide several local and US events to look out for (see economic calendar below). South African data may well be overshadowed by high impact US announcements which is in line with the recent trend of higher global weighting on the USD/ZAR currency pair. As always with economic events, any large deviation from estimates could result in major price swings on the pair which can affect trade positions.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

South Africa:

dailyfx economic calendar

United States:

dailyfx economic calendar


The end of 2020 could see the Rand edge closer to the 15.0000 level, while South Africa’s fundamental frailty could play catch up next year which may see the Rand consolidate in terms of gains against developed currencies. The short-term outlook seems favorable to further Rand strength but constant monitoring of global risk sentiment is important for future price movement.

Key points to consider:

  • Short-term 15.2000
  • Long-term: 15.0000
  • US economic data
  • COVID-19 vaccine updates

--- Written by Warren Venketas for

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.