News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/MXN is in the midst of a bullish breakout from a short-term falling wedge pattern, but this plots in the midst of a much longer-term falling wedge pattern. Get your $USDMX market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Italian PM Conte convenes cabinet for Tuesday to inform ministers he is resigning - Cabinet office $EUR Confirming earlier reports
  • Gains on $WTI Crude have stalled out this month below $54.00. The commodity is currently trading around $52.30 after falling to a two-week low late last week. $OIL $USO
  • No notable reaction in BTPs given that resignation from Conte has been touted earlier in order to put together a new government. Also, a resignation does not necessarily mean that a snap election will be the next step as of yet.
  • The retail speculative crowd is throwing around serious weight with GameStop today, but its appetites have been showing through with the likes of Tesla and FAANG before that. The Broader $NDX to $SPX ratio seems to similarly exhibit the charge:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.51%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • AUD/USD still tracks the opening range for January amid the limited reaction to Australia’s Employment report. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The focus will shift as to whether Conte will search for a new parliamentary majority As a reminder, PD Lawmakers noted that they would guarentee support for Conte as head of new government if he resigns $EUR
  • Italian PM Conte is expected to resign as early as Monday - Officials $EUR
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.13% Oil - US Crude: -0.19% Silver: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via
USD/ZAR Forecast: Global Sentiment Overshadows SA Ratings Downgrade

USD/ZAR Forecast: Global Sentiment Overshadows SA Ratings Downgrade

Warren Venketas, Markets Writer


  • South African sovereign ratings cut by both Moody’s and Fitch
  • Emerging Market (EM) currencies benefit around vaccine optimism

The South African Rand is trading well below pre-lockdown levels despite a ratings downgrade last week Friday, and may be heading toward the psychological 15.0000 level before year end. Both Fitch and Moody’s provided downgrades with similar reasoning as seen below:


  • Long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings downgraded to BB- from BB due to high rising government debt, dim growth prospects and inequality.


  • Long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 due to COVID-19 shocks, debt and economic reforms.

Many economists were taking by surprise with the downgrade, which makes the continued resilience by the Rand more captivating for analysts. It is no secret that global factors have been dictating much of the Rands movement however, significant ratings news is generally expected to have more of an impact.

The primary reason for the risk seeking behavior comes after promising COVID-19 vaccine news which has favored EM markets in the search for yield. Coupled with expected US Dollar weakness as further stimulus is anticipated.


USD/ZAR daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

November has already seen a ZAR appreciation of roughly 5.8% against the greenback. Major confluence around the 15.0000 level could see profit taking by USD/ZAR shorts. The last time the 15.0000 level was breached was 21 February 2020. It is important to remember the poor economic condition in South Africa which has not been reflective in the local currency as yet. Rising debt, wage negotiations and other financial pressures stemming from the global pandemic could re-surface within the currency at a later stage.

The daily chart above shows the recent swing low 15.2086 coinciding with the 76.4% Fibonacci level which could serve as initial support in the case of further ZAR appreciation.

USD/ZAR bulls may use last week’s swing high as an upside target should the Rand give back recent gains. Catalysts could likely come from upcoming economic events (see below) and vaccine related news. The downward trend is still strong which lends itself to potential added downside.


This week will provide several local and US events to look out for (see economic calendar below). South African data may well be overshadowed by high impact US announcements which is in line with the recent trend of higher global weighting on the USD/ZAR currency pair. As always with economic events, any large deviation from estimates could result in major price swings on the pair which can affect trade positions.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

South Africa:

dailyfx economic calendar

United States:

dailyfx economic calendar
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide


The end of 2020 could see the Rand edge closer to the 15.0000 level, while South Africa’s fundamental frailty could play catch up next year which may see the Rand consolidate in terms of gains against developed currencies. The short-term outlook seems favorable to further Rand strength but constant monitoring of global risk sentiment is important for future price movement.

Key points to consider:

  • Short-term 15.2000
  • Long-term: 15.0000
  • US economic data
  • COVID-19 vaccine updates

--- Written by Warren Venketas for

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.