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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen,
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AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Analysis & News

  • AUD Tracking Risk Sentiment Higher
  • However, AUD/USD Gains Capped by 0.7300
  • Eyes on Possible AUD/NZD Bottom After Significant Re-pricing of RBNZ Optimism

AUD Tracking Risk Sentiment Higher

The tug of war between market narratives with rising COVID cases and vaccine optimism continues with markets latching onto the latter as equity markets kick off to a firm start to the week. While the Asia RCEP trade pact and encouraging Chinese data also contributed to equity gains. Expectations are for further headlines this week with a possible vaccine update from Moderna, which according to Dr Fauci last week, is expected to show similar results to Pfizer. Elsewhere, a speech from President-Elect Biden on COVID planning at 18:45GMT will be key for market participants.

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However, AUD/USD Gains Capped by 0.7300

AUD/USD: A busy week in terms of commentary from the RBA, however, it is likely to echo comments made by RBA Governor Lowe, who noted that local data has been better than expected with the economy now on the road to recovery. Topside resistance at 0.7300 has curbed further gains in the pair for now, thus a setback sees initial support at 0.7260-70 in focus with a break below exposing a move towards last week’s low at 0.7220.

AUD/USD Bearish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 20% -10% 2%
Weekly 17% -3% 5%
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Eyes on Possible AUD/NZD Bottom After Significant Re-pricing of RBNZ Optimism

AUD/NZD: A significant re-pricing in NZ rates as the RBNZ delivers a more optimistic tone, resulting in negative rates being priced out of 2021. However, with the change in rhetoric looked have to been fully priced in, the cross may begin to find support from 1.0550-60. That said, eyes will be on the AU/NZ 10yr spread for signs of a possible bottoming in the cross, in which a bounce back can see a return to 1.0800-50. Initial resistance however, resides at 1.0645 (200DMA)

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.