Crude Oil Price Analysis & News
- Oil Extends Gains on API Drawdown
- Short Risks Do Remain with Upside Somewhat Exhausted
Oil Prices Leaking Lower
Oil prices crude futures are on the backfoot to close out the week with WTI breaking support at the $41.00/bbl level. Among the factors behind the latest downtick include the surprise build in DoE crude inventories. The headline had been somewhat of a shock considering the API figure had shown an unexpected drawdown. Elsewhere, rising COVID cases has seenthe IEA downgrade 2020 global oil demand growth in its monthly oil market report, while also stating that global demand is unlikely to receive a significant boost from the release of a vaccine in the short-term.
OPEC JMMC in Focus
For the oil complex, all eyes will be on the JMMC in which OPEC+ will discuss delaying a production hike of 2mbpd for 3-6 months and instead maintain the 7.7mbpd in 2021 as the recovery in oil demand slows, largely owing to renewed lockdown measures. However, a topic that will likely be addressed is the surge in Libyan oil production which is now estimated at 1.2mbpd, up 100kbpd a couple of months ago. This will mean that OPEC+ may have to make some difficult choices at the Nov 30—Dec 1 OPEC meeting.
Reminder, The next meetings of the JTC and the JMMC are scheduled for 16 November and 17 November 2020.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -8% | 1% | -6% |
| Weekly | 24% | -27% | 2% |
WTI Crude Futures Chart: Hourly Timeframe
Source: Refinitiv
