News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/t34kotPE8R
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/lM1OIJdjhr
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/6qGEVjDlN6
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/HGWZikGQAa
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/2cQ0JgAfh7
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Narrative Tug of War Between COVID Vaccine and COVID Cases

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Narrative Tug of War Between COVID Vaccine and COVID Cases

Justin McQueen, Analyst

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Price Analysis & News

  • Vaccine Hopes vs COVID Concerns
  • EUR/USD Tracks Higher on Cross-Related EUR/GBP Buying
  • JPY Recovers Slightly
  • USD/JPY Risks on the Upside Amid Higher Yields and Equities
Advertisement

Vaccine Hopes vs COVID Concerns

The tug of war between vaccine optimism and COVID concerns as to what is the more dominant narrative sees major FX pairs in limbo. Besides some modest firming in the Euro the rest of the G10 have been trading relatively flat. Pfizer’s vaccine breakthrough has raised hopes that others may see similar results, most notably Moderna, who stated yesterday that it has enough data for a first interim analysis of COVID vaccine. While the company has not given an exact time as to when the results will be released, Dr Fauci has said however, that the data could be announced within the next couple of days. To that end, market sensitivity to further vaccine updates is likely to remain high amid hopes of a quicker distribution of a COVID vaccine from several providers.

FX Majors 1-Day % Change

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Narrative Tug of War Between COVID Vaccine and COVID Cases

EUR: Broad based gains for the Euro, with EUR/USD supported by cross-related flows in EUR/GBP. Topside resistance in the EUR/USD sits at 1.1820-25, where a break above opens the door to 1.1870-75. Failure to overcome initial resistance puts focus back on 1.1755-60. Elsewhere, declines in EUR/GBP had been curbed at the September lows with the cross back in the mid-89s While a deal can see the cross return to 0.87, with current negotiations set to miss yet another deadline (Nov 15th) uncertainties do still remain for GBP and thus the bounce back better reflects those risks. My bias remains a fade on EUR/GBP rallies.

EUR/USD Option expiries: 1.1740-45 (550M), 1.1765 (687M), 1.1795-1.1805 (1.3BLN), 1.1825-30 (750M)

EUR/GBP Pivots - Support: 0.8870, 0.8834, 0.8810. Resistance: 0.8930, 0.8954, 0.8979

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Narrative Tug of War Between COVID Vaccine and COVID Cases

Source: Refinitiv

JPY: A slight recovery in the Japanese Yen as US yields ease off a touch (10yrs down 4bps), while a slightly softer risk tone also sees cross-yen edge lower. That said, following the announcement of vaccine breakthrough, risks are tilted to Yen selling. Keep in mind, that market positioning had been on the long JPY side to hedge against election risks, according to CFTC data. Therefore, with only a short period time for USD/JPY below 104.00, JPY will remain vulnerable to a further correction particularly as US yields and the Nikkei 225 remains elevated, the latter trading at a multi-decade high. Alongside this, with notable topside options at the 109.00 strike, I wouldn’t rule out a move for USD/JPY to extend towards those levels.

USD/JPY vs US 10Y Yield vs Nikkei 225 Futures

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Narrative Tug of War Between COVID Vaccine and COVID Cases

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES