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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March https://t.co/4cI6l210ui
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  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk. https://t.co/AazskXGjHq
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT https://t.co/oYnm2OYRky
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/AquMSrssne https://t.co/DtFuFfrS7Q
DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Peter Hanks, Strategist

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Price Forecast:

  • The DAX 30 bounced off support near the 11,320 mark and reclaimed much of its recently lost ground
  • The FTSE 100 is approaching the topside of its descending channel, can it break higher?
  • The CAC 40 followed suit but has since encountered resistance around the 5,000 mark

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

The US election has dominated traditional newswires this week and the remarkable ascent in the US indices has garnered significant media attention on the financial news side. As a result, simultaneous rallies in the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40 have gone largely undiscussed despite their parabolic nature. Nevertheless, their significant recoveries have seen the European indices regain their footing after stumbling in mid-October amid weak earnings results and renewed lockdown measures in their respective countries.

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DAX 30 Forecast

The DAX 30 was perhaps the weakest member of the group as we headed into election week, still reeling from the cataclysmic decline it suffered after SAP’s earnings disappointment. With that in mind, the recovery enjoyed in November thus far has seen the German equity index regain much of the ground it lost in the month prior and resistance around the 12,647 level may be the next overhead barrier. Beyond that, secondary resistance may reside around the 12,960 level.

DAX 30 Price Chart: 1 – Hour Time Frame (September 2020 – November 2020)

DAX 30 price chart

Still, RSI readings suggest the DAX 30 has entered overbought territory on shorter timeframes and may be susceptible to consolidation in the coming days. Early areas of support may reside around the 12,340 level which marks the September swing low and has displayed influence on price action in both October and November. Secondary support may reside near the 12,145 zone.

FTSE 100 Forecast

Unlike the DAX 30 which suffered losses due to asudden shock, the FTSE 100 has been bleeding lower for months, largely due to Brexit uncertainty. That said, the magnitude of the recent rally is somewhat surprising because little has been achieved on the Brexi front, meaning the uptick in price has been largely derived from catalysts elsewhere. Therefore, I am hesitant to suggest the rally will continue higher in earnest, at least until progress is seen in trade negotiations.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2020 – November 2020)

ftse 100 price chart

Suffice it to say, there could still be room to run should the topside of the descending channel break. Residing near the 5,930 mark, it might provide early resistance. Subsequent barriers may reside at the various lower-highs over the last few months, with the first standing near 6,050.

Should bullishness wane, the FTSE 100 may lend itself to range trading strategies. To that end, proponents of the strategy could set levels of invalidation slightly above the topside of the descending channel, while looking for areas of interest near the lower bound, perhaps near 5,500.

CAC 40 Forecast

Like the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 has been negotiating a range for months. Price dipped beneath the lower bound in late October, but the recent rally has seen the French equity index reclaim the level and charge higher. Now, it has encountered resistance at the 5,00 mark - derived from the October highs.

CAC 40 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May 2020 – November 2020)

cac 40 price chart

If bulls can push higher still, subsequent resistance may reside around the 5,130 mark. On the other hand, a return to risk aversion might see the CAC 40 retreat to prior support near 4,820 and 4,670. In the meantime, follower @PeterHanksFXon Twitter for updates and analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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