News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.28% US 500: 0.16% Wall Street: 0.13% France 40: 0.13% Germany 30: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/dBYB9pkb95
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (SEP) Actual: 81.1 Expected: 80.8 Previous: 79.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (SEP) Actual: 92.5 Expected: 92.9 Previous: 88.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • The Dollar has closed with a technical break to its lowest level since April 2018 after the Dow's 30,000 break. Yet seasonality may curb the potential on high-level trends, where are risk trends pointing short, medium and long-term? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/11/26/Dow-Gold-Tesla-What-Different-Markets-Say-About-the-Outlook-for-Risk-Trends.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/fxWEx51n48
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (SEP) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 92.9 Previous: 88.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (SEP) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 80.8 Previous: 79.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • RT @FxWestwater: S&P 500 May Rise Further, Fed-Treasury Affray Brushed Aside for Now Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/11/26/SP-500-May-Rise-Further-Fed-Treasury-Affray-Brushed-Aside-for-Now.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr $SPX $SPY #FOMC #FED ht…
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/MJN9UYUbmz
  • How does stock market liquidity benefit its traders? Learn more here. https://t.co/FWKyIDUwAw https://t.co/cye72bUV4e
  • BoK Governor Lee says Yellen a rational pick for Fed, would be positive for markets - BBG
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/NZD Looking a for Turning Point

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/NZD Looking a for Turning Point

2020-10-29 09:55:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

AUD/NZD Analysis & News

  • Risk Sentiment Pressured by Renewed Lockdown Measures
  • RBNZ Risk for More Dovish Rhetoric
  • AUD/NZD Looking Increasingly Supportive as RBA Easing is Priced In
Advertisement

Risk Sentiment Pressured by Renewed Lockdown Measures

Renewed lockdown measures from France and Germany had tipped risk sentiment over the edge, prompting a sea of red across the board. In turn, high-beta currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar had been notable underperformers. That said, what has gained my interest in recent sessions has been the continued move lower in AUD/NZD to 1.0600, which had partly stemmed from the fresh rhetoric from the RBA over imminent easing at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Download our fresh Q4 AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

RBNZ Risk for More Dovish Rhetoric

However, we must not forget that the RBNZ is also quickly approaching (scheduled for Nov 11th) and while the RBNZ are not expected to ease further in terms of the OCR at the November meeting, they are expected to move into negative territory in the first half of 2021. Reminder, the central bank’s guidance on the OCR in March had been that they will not lower rates for a year. With that in mind, in light of the softer inflation data relative to the central banks expectations, the RBNZ could potentially loosen this guidance to signal a move in February. As it stands, money markets are pricing negative rates from the April 2021 meeting.

NZD/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 9% 6%
Weekly 4% 0% 1%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

RBNZ Money Market Pricing

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/NZD Looking a for Turning Point

Source: Refinitiv

AUD/NZD Looking Increasingly Supportive as RBA Easing is Priced In

The drop in AUD/NZD would suggest that RBA easing has largely been priced and while the risk off sentiment has added fuel to the downside. The outlook for the cross is starting to look increasingly supportive from 1.06 with the RBNZ looking to keep the Kiwi on the backfoot, while rate differentials are also remain AUD positive. That said, it would be prudent to hold back until after the US election dust settles.

AUD/NZD vs AU/NZ 10yr Rate Differentials

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/NZD Looking a for Turning Point

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES