News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here:
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here:
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here:
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
AUD/USD Forecast: Chinese Industrial Profits Flash Global Growth Warning?

AUD/USD Forecast: Chinese Industrial Profits Flash Global Growth Warning?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Chinese Industrial Production, US Election, Fiscal Stimulus - Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar weakened on fading Chinese industrial profits
  • Rising Covid-19 cases, US fiscal stimulus stalemate are key risks
  • AUD/USD technical outlook seems to be favoring the downside

The Australian Dollar cautiously weakened after Chinese industrial profits rose 10.1 percent y/y in September. This is down by about half from 19.1% last month when the reading hovered around its highest in over 2 years. Could this be part of a narrative highlighting fading local economic activity? Just last week, Chinese third-quarter GDP slightly disappointed as the y/y growth rate clocked in at 4.9% versus 5.5% anticipated.

Still, industrial profits are around their highest since early 2019. Overall, the data series is coinciding with improving economic trends in global industrial activity – see chart below. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI reading touched its highest in 2 years for the same month industrial profits were recorded. In the former, readings above 50 indicate expansion while those below it mark contraction.

As a sentiment-linked currency, the Australian Dollar could benefit should the outlook for global growth improve. China is also Australia’s largest trading partner, opening the door to economic spillovers. This is why the Aussie can at times be sensitive to data out of the world’s second-largest economy. Having said that, there are some roadblocks ahead that could put a brake on the road to recovery.

The rise in Covid-19 cases globally as of late is one thing if lockdown measures are reintroduced such as what occurred in Italy and Spain. All eyes also remain on the United States where policymakers are in a stalemate over another fiscal package before the November 3rd presidential election. Concerns about the expediency of such a measure likely plunged equities and dent the Aussie on Monday.

Chinese industrial prodits versus global manufacturing PMI

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD could be at risk of losses ahead. The pair is trading within a bearish Descending Triangle chart pattern after the formation of a ‘Death Cross’. The latter popped up after the 20-day moving average crossed under the 50-day one in September. A breakout under the floor of the triangle at 0.7006 could open the door to testing lows from June.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Forecast: Chinese Industrial Profits Flash Global Growth Warning?

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.